How the US Election Could Make or Break Bitcoin's Future: Insights from Bernstein

The Bitcoin price trajectory is set to be heavily influenced by the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Analysts at Bernstein noted that if former President Donald Trump wins the 2024 election, Bitcoin could potentially soar to unprecedented levels, reaching $80,000 to $90,000. Conversely, a victory for Kamala Harris could lead to a sharp decline, possibly testing new lows around $40,000.

Market Reactions to Election Odds

Bernstein's Gautam Chhugani stated, "We expect Bitcoin to continue reacting to election odds, and turn more positive, if it starts sensing better Trump odds, and become range bound, if the race continues as ‘too close to call.'" This highlights the market's sensitivity to election dynamics.

The Role of Market Sentiment

The report also discusses market sentiment, noting that traders on the decentralized betting platform Polymarket have significantly increased their bets on a Trump victory, suggesting a shift in confidence. Currently, Polymarket shows a 7% lead for Trump over Harris, which could influence Bitcoin's price movements.

Implications for Bitcoin and Other Cryptocurrencies

While both candidates express support for digital assets, Trump's administration is expected to offer broader backing, particularly in Bitcoin mining and institutional adoption. Bernstein anticipates that Trump's policies could drive Bitcoin past its previous all-time high of $74,000.

Conversely, if Harris wins, Bitcoin may face regulatory tightening, posing risks of lower prices. The report also mentions that the election outcome will impact other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL), with expectations of remaining range-bound until post-election clarity emerges.

Edited by Stacy Elliott.