The July U.S. consumer price index hits the wires Wednesday morning, and it is shaping up as a classic binary event for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. A hotter-than-expected number would strengthen the case for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, push Treasury yields higher, and keep pressure on risk assets. A softer print would do the opposite. Either way, the result could bitcoin out of the $62,000–$66,000 range it has been stuck in for weeks.

Traders are positioning in different ways ahead of the data release. Some are buying upside exposure through call options on leading options exchange Deribit. Calls let traders benefit if the price rises while limiting their risk to the premium paid upfront – similar to buying a lottery ticket with a defined maximum loss.

“Dominant flow on Deribit BTC options since yesterday has been concentrated in the 25SEP26 70k call,” data tracking platform Laevitas said. Traders who bought that September expiry call at the $70,000 strike paid a total premium of roughly $2.5 million. That is the most they can lose if bitcoin stays below $70,000 by the end of September. The demand for this bullish exposure suggests some investors expect the ongoing choppy price action in BTC to end with a decisive move toward $70,000. Perhaps, they expect the CPI to come in softer-than-expected, lifting risk assets higher.

Economists currently expect the July report to show headline CPI rising 0.1% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, is forecast to rise 0.2% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year, according to consensus estimates from Reuters, Dow Jones, and Bloomberg surveys.

Other traders are less focused on direction and more interested in a jump in volatility. “We reiterate our recommendation to accumulate December optionality, leveraging depressed implied volatility across the curve ahead of several key catalysts, notably updates on bipartisan Clarity Act negotiations, shifts in Middle East geopolitical risks, and potential monetary policy pivots,” quant-driven trading firm TDX Strategies said. “Structurally, we favour December strangles on BTC and SOL,” the firm added. A strangle involves buying both a call and a put with the same expiration. The position profits if the price makes a large move in either direction. The maximum loss is limited to the combined premium paid and occurs only if the market stays relatively flat.

Volatility could expand quickly once bitcoin breaks out of its recent range, according to Jeff Anderson, managing partner at market-making firm STS Digital. “A decisive break of either level in spot should see volatility expand quickly, and the closely watched CPI this Wednesday will be our first indicator following Warsh’s inflation focused press conference,” Anderson told CoinDesk. “It is also worth noting the looming seasonal backdrop: September has historically been Bitcoin’s weakest month, down roughly 4% on average since 2013,” he added.

On the blockchain, the picture looks more constructive for the bulls. Major coins are leaving exchanges, a sign of accumulation, even as some sophisticated traders remain cautious in the derivatives market, according to analytics firm Nansen. “On spot, the majors are being accumulated, not distributed: ETH saw exchange net outflows of $49.7M over the past day and $164.6M over the past week, meaning coins are leaving exchanges rather,” Jake Kennis, senior research analyst at Nansen, said in an email. Kennis added that the “derivatives picture is more guarded,” with smart traders on the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid holding a net short exposure of $46.8 million in bitcoin and $20.9 million in ether.

Taken together, the positioning points to a market that is cautiously optimistic on both price and volatility as the key inflation data approaches.

Bitcoin and ether are stuck in a tight range ahead of the CPI. Here’s how savvy traders are positioning for the pivotal release.

Bitcoin and Ether Traders Brace for CPI: Bullish Bets and Volatility Plays Ahead of Key Data

## Elon Musk's AI Warning About the Dollar Is Becoming Reality—Bitcoin Stands Ready

Elon Musk's April statement about AI and the dollar is hitting differently now. With Bitcoin trading near $64,000 and AI eliminating jobs at a rate of 27,000 cuts per quarter, his words resonate more than ever.

> "If AI and robots increase output, then you must issue dollars to people or there will be massive disinflation."

His core argument: automation could expand production so dramatically that prices collapse unless purchasing power is distributed to match the new supply. More goods, same number of dollars, means each dollar buys more. That sounds good, but for an economy built on debt and consumption, it's destabilizing.

### The Problem with Issuing More Dollars

Musk's proposed fix—a form of universal high income funded by government—immediately runs into the problem every monetary economist flags. Shankar Sanyal, who pushed back directly on X, called the plan likely to "bankrupt any government that attempts it."

The IMF, in its latest World Economic Outlook, has separately warned that elevated public debt and declining institutional trust are increasing fragility across economies. More dollars, regardless of what productivity is doing, erodes the purchasing power of the dollars already in circulation. That's not a theory; it's the documented history of every currency that has been printed to solve a structural economic problem.

### Where Bitcoin Enters the Equation

This is precisely the scenario Bitcoin was designed for. While governments debate whether to print more currency to distribute, Bitcoin has already answered the question: its supply is fixed at 21 million coins. No AI productivity surge changes that number. No government can issue more of it to smooth over a disinflation problem. No political consensus is required to protect it.

Musk's dilemma—print dollars and risk inflation, or don't print and risk disinflation—is a fiat currency problem, not a Bitcoin problem. The 21 million cap does not flex to accommodate either outcome. That inflexibility is the point.

According to data, employers cut more than 27,000 jobs linked to AI in Q1 2026 alone, up 40 percent year over year. The pace of displacement is accelerating. Musk is right that the economy will need a response. Whether that response is government-issued dollars or a fixed-supply asset that governments cannot dilute is the most important monetary question of the next decade.

Elon Musk made a statement in April that most people filed under AI policy and moved on. Reading it again in August, with Bitcoin trading near $64,000 and AI eliminating jobs at a rate of 27,000 cuts per quarter, it lands differently. "If AI and robots increase output," Musk wrote on X, "then you ...

Elon Musk's AI Warning About the Dollar Is Becoming Reality—Bitcoin Stands Ready

## Russia's Central Bank Opens Crypto Trading to Retail Investors

Russia's central bank has proposed its first framework for letting ordinary investors trade crypto on public markets. The Bank of Russia published a draft directive on Aug. 11 that would allow non-qualified investors to buy digital assets through brokers, crypto exchanges, or managers—within a strict annual ceiling.

"We're setting a limit on the purchase of cryptocurrencies for non-qualified investors," the central bank said in a separate notice. "Through each intermediary—a broker, crypto exchanger, or manager—they will be able to acquire such assets in the amount of 300 thousand rubles per year."

### Which Coins, and Why Only Three

The draft names exactly three tokens cleared for public exchange trading: **Bitcoin**, **Ethereum**, and **Tether's USDT**. The central bank tied the short list to a law signed this month. "The list of digital currencies that the trading organizer is entitled to admit for public circulation on organized trading platforms (hereinafter referred to as the 'List'): Bitcoin (Bitcoin), Ethereum (Ethereum), Tether USDT (Tether USDT)." the notice reads.

The filter is **liquidity and track record**. Under the new federal law on digital currencies, a coin's market cap, average daily volume, and at least five years of pricing history on foreign platforms decide if it qualifies. "To protect non-qualified investors from sharp and unpredictable fluctuations in cryptocurrency rates, only the most liquid of them will be available to them," the bank said.

The cap itself is written into the directive's operative text. "The maximum amount of the total value of digital currencies acquired through a broker during the calendar year amounts to 300 thousand rubles," Article 2 states.

**XRP**, the cryptocurrency created by the founders of payments company Ripple in 2012, has been left off the approved list for now. The token would seemingly qualify given the criteria, but XRP over the years has gone through regulatory troubles—stemming from a since-settled SEC lawsuit against Ripple—that caused the token to be delisted and then relisted on several exchanges, which could be playing a factor.

### Retail Gets a Door; Whales Get the Market

Qualified investors—Russia's wealthier, accredited class—face none of these walls. "Qualified investors will be able to acquire all cryptocurrencies that will be traded on the exchange and over-the-counter markets, without restrictions," the notice says. Before any trade, though, everyone takes a test. "All investors, regardless of their status, will need to pass testing and familiarize themselves with the risks of investing in cryptoassets."

The move follows the central bank's earlier steps to open crypto to wealthy investors, and lands as Tether's role draws scrutiny—the stablecoin issuer has frozen millions in USDT tied to sanctioned Russian exchanges.

The Bank of Russia accepts comments until Aug. 24, and the directive takes effect 10 days after its official publication, signed by Governor Elvira Nabiullina.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Tether clear the central bank's liquidity bar—everything else, including XRP, stays off-limits for retail.

Russia Greenlights Bitcoin, Ethereum, and USDT for Retail Trading—But XRP Misses the Cut

Bitcoin slipped to near $64,000 on Tuesday, down over 1% on the day but still up marginally on the week, after a fourth failed attempt to hold above $65,000. It reached a 24-hour high just above $65,300 before sliding through the Asian afternoon.

Ether was the weakest major, down over 2% to $1,878, though it remains slightly higher over seven days. XRP fell almost 2% to $1.01 and is down almost 6% on the week, the worst of the group by some distance. Solana eased under 1% to $76 but leads the week at 3%. BNB slipped to $600 and holds a 2% weekly gain.

Three majors went the other way. Hyperliquid's HYPE rose almost 2% to $55, tron gained slightly to 33 cents and dogecoin was marginally higher at 7 cents.

Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said bitcoin has been testing $65,000 for four straight days without any surge in buying as it approaches the round number.

More telling is the absence of selling into it, which he read as "a build-up of short positions well above this level" rather than holders taking profit.

That makes $70,000 the next area to watch, another round number with the 200-day moving average sitting nearby. Clearing it would put bitcoin above the range where buyers and sellers fought through March and April, a move Kuptsikevich said would shift sentiment meaningfully.

Traders are not there yet. The crypto sentiment index sits at 30, in what is known as the fear zone, and has stayed there since mid-July with occasional dips toward extreme fear.

Bonds and oil set the tone in broader markets. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose six basis points on Monday to 4.71%, dragging Australian and New Zealand government bonds down with them, with no cash Treasury trading during Asian hours because of a public holiday in Japan.

Brent crude held at $87.73 a barrel after jumping 5% on Monday, when President Donald Trump made fresh demands on Iran and dimmed hopes of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Gold rose for a third session above $4,400 an ounce.

Higher oil feeds into the inflation figures due Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, which is why the rally is weighing on assets that do better when rate rises look less likely.

Fund flows had been running the other way until this week. U.S. spot bitcoin funds took in $865 million across five sessions through Aug. 7, before a provisional outflow of $91 million on Monday.

Bitcoin failed to hold $65,000 for a fourth day as an oil rally revived inflation worries before Wednesday's U.S. price data.

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