It's been a challenging year for **Bitcoin** and cryptocurrencies overall. Despite recent corrections, Bitcoin remains the largest crypto asset globally, with its price dropping to around $65,000 and a market cap of approximately $1.3 trillion.

However, a significant price surge might be on the horizon, according to a Wall Street analyst. Here's why Bitcoin holders should stay optimistic.

## Expect More Short-Term Pain

Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at **Standard Chartered**, a British bank with nearly $1 trillion in assets, warns that the recent cryptocurrency correction may not be over yet. In a note to investors, he stated, "Near-term, we see potential for further price downside in the coming months." This is due to ongoing withdrawals from crypto-based ETFs, with average **Bitcoin ETF** holdings down about 25%.

Despite this, Kendrick views the volatility as a temporary setback. He maintains his long-term prediction that Bitcoin will hit $100,000 this year as the asset class matures and becomes more resilient.

Looking ahead to 2030, Kendrick is confident in a **$500,000 price target**. He notes, "We think that the involvement of institutional investors and ETFs will cushion the downside this time, leading to less extreme total declines," adding, "Our constructive long-term view remains intact."

Other analysts echo this optimism. Ark Invest, led by Cathie Wood, forecasts a Bitcoin price of $710,000 by 2030, with a minimum target of $300,000 and a potential high of $1.5 million. The key driver? **Institutional investment**, particularly through spot ETFs.

In summary, both Kendrick and Wood believe institutional involvement will boost Bitcoin's long-term value while reducing downside risks. But there's another critical factor to watch.

## Will Bitcoin Really Reach $500,000?

What justifies a $500,000 Bitcoin price? A comparison to **gold** offers a clear answer.

Store-of-value assets, like real estate or art, retain value based on societal agreement. Gold has been valued for millennia, with a market cap of about $36 trillion.

Bitcoin is often called **digital gold** due to its scarcity and decentralized nature. With a current market cap of $1.3 trillion, if Bitcoin were to achieve value parity with gold, each Bitcoin could be worth around $1.7 million.

Cathie Wood's Ark Invest supports this view, describing Bitcoin as "a nimbler, more transparent store of value relative to gold." They believe Bitcoin's potential to capture market share from gold is a major factor in their bullish predictions.

While achieving this parity isn't guaranteed and could take decades, the comparison shows how a $500,000 target is reasonable, even without considering other use cases.

Bitcoin investors may soon forget the recent correction.

Bitcoin's Path to $500,000: Why a Wall Street Analyst Predicts a Massive Surge

Crypto markets have been lacking conviction, with traders struggling to identify a catalyst strong enough to lift prices out of their current lull. **Bitcoin has remained range-bound around mid-$60,000**, while ether is trading around $2,000, and volumes across major exchanges have thinned.

The digital assets market is thirsty for a solid catalyst, and **JPMorgan says it has identified one — market structure legislation in the U.S., called the Clarity Act**.

"While sentiment remains negative in crypto markets, we continue to believe that a potential approval of the market structure legislation most likely by mid year could serve as a positive catalyst for crypto markets into the second half of the year," analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said in a report.

While the market faces broader hesitation among both retail and institutional participants, **regulatory ambiguity has also weighed on sentiment**, leaving larger investors cautious about deploying new capital.

Market participants say that without tangible progress on a coherent regulatory framework, sidelined capital is unlikely to return in force. This is where the Clarity Act would be a decisive catalyst for the digital assets market, according to JPMorgan.

A comprehensive framework defining oversight, token classifications and exchange obligations would remove one of the biggest overhangs on the asset class: **uncertainty**. With clearer rules of the road, large asset managers, pension funds and corporate treasuries that have so far remained cautious could gain the confidence and compliance cover to increase allocations.

That wave of institutional participation, in turn, could deepen liquidity, compress volatility and unlock new product development, from structured offerings to broader tokenized assets.

## A Bill Stuck in Limbo

At its core, the proposed bill would define oversight across the **Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)**, classifying tokens as either digital commodities or securities.

The bank's analysts said placing major tokens under CFTC jurisdiction would reduce compliance burdens and legal uncertainty. A “grandfather” clause would allow certain tokens tied to spot exchange-traded funds listed before Jan. 1, 2026, including **XRP, solana, litecoin, hedera, dogecoin and chainlink**, to be treated as commodities.

The proposal would also let new projects raise up to **$75 million annually without full SEC registration**, subject to disclosure rules. The analysts said that the grace period could revive onshore issuance, venture funding and deal activity that has shifted overseas.

However, the leading U.S. effort to establish the federal crypto rules has stalled in the Senate after months of talks and missed timelines, leaving the bill in limbo as lawmakers wrangle over key provisions.

A scheduled Senate Banking Committee markup was postponed in early 2026 after **Coinbase (COIN), the largest U.S. crypto exchange, publicly withdrew its support for the bill**, saying the current text could hamper innovation, weaken competition, and restrict features like stablecoin rewards.

Coinbase’s opposition exposed divisions among industry players and lawmakers, even as some analysts and banking voices say the bill’s core goals, clearer SEC/CFTC oversight and defined regulatory pathways, keep momentum alive.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said earlier this month that banking trade groups, rather than individual banks, were largely responsible for the stalled talks over U.S. crypto market structure legislation.

In a market still heavily driven by sentiment and flows, a decisive regulatory breakthrough could act as a powerful catalyst, the kind that doesn’t just steady prices, but potentially propels them sharply higher.

JPMorgan said the long-awaited Clarity Act would bring regulatory clarity, boost institutional participation and accelerate tokenization across U.S. crypto markets.

JPMorgan Reveals the Hidden Catalyst That Could Ignite Bitcoin's Next Bull Run

## Bitcoin's Rally Falters Amid Market Turmoil

Bitcoin's attempt to reclaim $70,000 earlier in the week lasted about 48 hours.

The largest cryptocurrency slid to **$65,735** in early Asian hours on Saturday, down **3%** over the past day and **2.8%** on the week. Wednesday's rally, which came within touching distance of $70,000, has now given back more than half its gains as broader risk sentiment deteriorated through Thursday and Friday's U.S. sessions.

## Altcoins Take a Harder Hit

Altcoins took a harder hit. **Solana dropped 6.7%**, ether fell 6.2%, **dogecoin shed 5.1%**, and **XRP lost 4%**. The losses pushed most major tokens into the red on a weekly basis, erasing the altcoin outperformance that had been the week's most encouraging signal. BNB held up better than most, down just 2.5%.

## Triggers Behind the Sell-Off

The trigger was familiar. Friday's U.S. session saw the **S&P 500 close down 0.4%**, the Nasdaq 100 drop 0.3%, and the Dow fall 1.1%. **Nvidia**, still digesting its post-earnings reaction, shed another 4.2%.

A hotter-than-expected **0.5% jump in producer prices** added fuel, signaling inflationary pressure that may keep the Fed from cutting rates anytime soon. Block Inc.'s massive layoffs fanned broader anxiety that AI is starting to displace jobs across the economy rather than just creating them.

Crypto followed equities lower, but as usual, with amplified magnitude. A 0.4% drop in the S&P became a 3% drop in bitcoin and a more than 6% drop in altcoins. The leverage that re-entered the system during Wednesday's rally got flushed on the way back down.

## Institutional Flows vs. Macro Headwinds

The irony is that the institutional flow data this week was actually strong.

**U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs added $1.1 billion in three days**, putting them on pace for their best week in months. But ETF inflows haven't been enough to overcome the broader macro headwinds.

"Over-analysis of short-term price movements is misguided," said Dom Harz, co-founder of bitcoin finance firm BOB said in an email. "Bitcoin's volatility is no surprise, particularly for early investors who have experienced previous cycles. What's different this time is the type of capital behind the emerging asset class."

## Key Data Points and Market Signals

Meanwhile, CryptoQuant data shows **USDT stablecoin reserves on exchanges have fallen from $60 billion to $51.1 billion** over the past two months, a decline the firm warned could trigger a "massive sell-off" if reserves drop below $50 billion.

Elsewhere, Strategy shares topped the list of large U.S. companies by short interest volume as markets increasingly question the sustainability of the firm's debt-funded bitcoin buying program.

And on the Ethereum side, large holders have started selling at a loss, with DAT company ETHZilla officially abandoning its ETH accumulation strategy and rebranding to focus on tokenized real-world assets instead.

## Bitcoin's Current Range and Future Outlook

Bitcoin is now back in the middle of the **$60,000-$70,000 range** it has been stuck in since the Feb. 5 crash. Wednesday proved the top of that range is resistance. The question heading into March is whether the bottom still holds.

The pullback erased most of Wednesday's push toward $70,000 as hot producer-price data and a post-earnings Nvidia decline dragged risk assets lower heading into the weekend.

Bitcoin Plunges to $65,000: Weekend Sell-Off Wipes Gains as Altcoins Crash 6%

Six Polymarket accounts earned roughly **$1.2 million** after correctly betting that the U.S. would strike Iran on Feb. 28, according to blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps.

In a [post](https://x.com/bubblemaps/status/2027718004193300791) on X, blockchain analyzer Bubblemaps said most of the wallets were funded within the last 24 hours before the attack and bought **“Yes” shares** in the “U.S. strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?” market just hours before explosions were reported in Tehran and other cities. The accounts had no activity beyond these predictions.

![Suspected insiders (Bubblemaps)](https://www.coindesk.com/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.sanity.io%2Fimages%2Fs3y3vcno%2Fproduction%2F2fcc5edda8cfa1af90633a9bbc899592fba0901d-1166x1184.png%3Fauto%3Dformat&w=3840&q=75)

*Suspected insiders (Bubblemaps)*

The strikes followed a televised address by U.S. President Donald Trump announcing what he called “major combat operations,” targeting the country’s missile, naval, and nuclear infrastructure. The attack saw **bitcoin’s price drop** while **oil futures on Hyperliquid rose**.

One Polymarket account Bubblemaps pointed to purchased more than 560,000 “Yes” shares at about 10.8 cents each, a position that paid out near **$560,000** after the market resolved at $1. Another account bought nearly 150,000 shares at 20 cents, turning a six-figure profit. All six profiles were created in February, according to Polymarket data.

Trading volume on the Feb. 28 contract [reached](https://polymarket.com/event/us-strikes-iran-by/us-strikes-iran-by-march-1-2026-492) nearly **$90 million**, part of more than **$529 million** wagered across related strike-date markets since December.

Bubblemaps published a visual map showing the six wallets clustered together and funded through similar paths.

## Insider trading probes

The trades land as U.S. regulators weigh how to police insider activity on prediction markets. This week, rival platform Kalshi said it [suspended and fined](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/02/25/mrbeast-editor-nabbed-by-prediction-market-firm-kalshi-for-alleged-insider-trading) two users for insider trading, including a visual effects editor for MrBeast’s “Beast Games” who allegedly traded on knowledge of show outcomes.

Kalshi, which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a designated contract market, said it has investigated about **200 cases** and has more than a dozen active probes.

The CFTC issued an advisory noting the enforcement actions and warned that insider trading on event contracts may violate U.S. law. Chairman Mike Selig called exchanges the **“first line of defense.”** Kalshi banned the employee for two years and fined him more than $20,000. In a separate case, a political candidate was penalized for betting on his own race.

More recently, Polymarket traders have appeared to [insider trade a market on insider trading itself.](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/02/27/polymarket-bettors-appear-to-have-insider-traded-on-a-market-designed-to-catch-insider-traders) Blockchain sleuth ZachXBT last week teased that he would publish the findings of an investigation into a crypto platform, which turned out to be Axiom, whose employees he believed used non-public information to trade.

Teasing the investigation was coming, however, led to the creation of a Polymarket contract on which company would be named. Some clearly knew the answer to which company was under investigation, with Lookonchain identifying **12 wallets** that heavily bet on Axiom ahead of the reveal.

The strikes caused bitcoin’s price to fall and oil futures on Hyperliquid to rise over the regional conflict’s consequences.

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