Is the Bitcoin Halving Cycle a Myth? New Report Challenges Traditional Beliefs

Outlier Ventures has released a provocative report claiming that the four-year Bitcoin halving cycle is dead. This assertion comes as they analyze Bitcoin's price movements post-halving and argue that these events no longer hold the same weight in influencing prices due to a maturing crypto market.

Report Claims Bitcoin Halving’s Influence on Prices Is Overestimated

The report, authored by Jasper De Maere, the Research Lead at Outlier Ventures, suggests that the impact of halvings has significantly diminished since 2016. He stated:

"We believe that 2016 was the last time the halving had a significant, fundamental impact on BTC price action. Since then, the size of the miners’ BTC block reward has become negligible in the context of a maturing and increasingly diversified crypto market."

This analysis emphasizes that the traditional four-year cycle is no longer a reliable predictor of price trends. De Maere challenges the long-held belief that halvings are crucial for Bitcoin’s price action, noting:

"The strong BTC and crypto market performance following the 2020 halving is coincidence, as the 2020 halving occurred during a period of unprecedented global capital injection post-Covid, with the U.S. alone increasing its money supply (M2) by 25.3% that year."

Additionally, the report critiques the belief that the cycle will remain relevant in 2024, highlighting that:

"The BTC ETF approval is a demand-driven catalyst, while the halving is a supply-driven catalyst, making them not mutually exclusive."

De Maere concludes that while halvings may have psychological effects on investors, their fundamental impact has become irrelevant. He advises investors to focus on more significant macroeconomic drivers rather than relying on the four-year cycle.

What do you think about the argument that Bitcoin’s halving events no longer influence its price significantly? Let us know in the comments section below.