Current Pattern Unfolding
- Five-wave rally: The impulsive rally starting from ₹52,568 appears to have topped out at ₹1,08,367.
- V-shape reversal: Bitcoin retraced sharply to ₹92,209 on 20th Dec 2024.
- Sideways movement: Over the past 6-7 days, Bitcoin has been consolidating between ₹92,209 (lows) and ₹99,872 (highs), forming a Flat Correction (ABC Wave).
Daily Chart - Bitcoin
Key Observations
- Wave-C: This appears to be an impulsive sequence, concluding with a Rising Wedge near ₹99,872.
- Critical support: ₹92,209 – the low from 20th Dec 2024.
30 Mins Chart - Impulsive Wave C of Flat Correction
Catching the Tops with Wave Patterns (30 Mins Chart)
- The rising wedge or ending diagonal at ₹99,872 highs is one of the most rewarding patterns in Elliott Wave analysis.
- Understanding and applying this pattern effectively allows you to catch tops and prepare for reversals.
- Key takeaway: If you're on the right side of the pattern—as I was recently—you can reap significant rewards from such setups.
Possible Strategies
Scenario 1: Fall Below ₹92,209
- If Bitcoin breaks below ₹92,209, it could confirm a larger corrective phase.
- Key downside targets:
- ₹83,625: Equality projection of the fall from ₹1,08,367 to ₹92,209.
- ₹73,555: 162% extension projection of the same move.
- Strategy:
- Wait for confirmation below ₹92,209 before entering short positions.
- Use ₹92,209 as the invalidation level for bullish positions.
Scenario 2: Holding Above ₹92,209
- Bitcoin may continue its consolidation, eventually breaking higher.
- Strategy:
- Monitor for a breakout above ₹99,872 to confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
- Target higher levels for Wave-2 correction, with stops below ₹92,209.
Outlook for Next Week (by 3rd Jan 2025)
- The sideways movement is expected to resolve, providing clear directional cues.
- Bearish bias: Favored if ₹92,209 breaks decisively.
- Bullish potential: A strong hold above ₹92,209 with a breakout above ₹99,872 could invalidate the bearish outlook & needs to be reviewed later.
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