Bitcoin's Future: Are We Approaching the End of the Bull Run?

A Bearish Perspective on Bitcoin's Future

As a self-proclaimed bear on crypto, I believe we might be nearing the top of the current cycle. My most optimistic target for Bitcoin is $120,000, with a potential overshoot to $150,000. However, I don't see these high targets as likely, and I advise caution for those who can withstand a significant pullback.

I am not part of the ‘bitcoin to a mil this year’ crowd. While it's theoretically possible for Bitcoin to reach $1 million, this is not feasible in the current cycle. One scenario could involve extreme hyperinflation, where a simple beer costs $100,000, but I don't foresee such a collapse of the dollar. Alternatively, after three more halvenings, it might reach that level in about 12 years, with ideal economic conditions. But even that seems optimistic. The dream of $1 million by Christmas? Not happening.

The Dominance of Bitcoin in the Crypto Space

A critical question for crypto enthusiasts is whether Bitcoin will remain the dominant cryptocurrency indefinitely. While it may hold this status, it could also be surpassed by another crypto. This uncertainty undermines the expectation of Bitcoin reaching $1 million under normal economic conditions.

I have reservations about deflationary money. Historically, hard money has had a poor track record. Those planning to invest heavily in Bitcoin should educate themselves on the history of currency before risking significant funds.

Market Sentiment and Strategy

I do hold Bitcoin and have been bullish during previous crypto winters, but I am currently bearish as Bitcoin is no longer at a low point. The current market sentiment appears faintly bearish, indicating a period of stability before the next major movement. It’s crucial to listen to the market rather than trying to dictate its direction.

For traders, this is an excellent time, while Bitcoin maximalists may find it less appealing. For medium-term investors, this could be a moment to either hold or sell. I estimate a 70/30 chance this is the top, prompting me to reduce my holdings.

With Trump now back in the picture, it remains to be seen whether this will be a ‘sell on news’ situation. His policies could prove less detrimental to Bitcoin than those of the Democrats, potentially allowing for a resurgence in blockchain applications that have faced regulatory hurdles.

Many investors may not want to acknowledge that another crypto winter is on the horizon, but this classic pullback won’t hinder the next cycle from starting soon enough.

Disclaimer: I own Bitcoin.