Bitcoin’s (BTC) futures market is showing signs of a potential price cooldown following several weeks of correction. According to data from CryptoQuant, the BTC-USDT futures leverage ratio in relation to open interest (OI) has significantly halved since its peak in early 2025.
This de-leveraging has been driven by massive liquidations in recent weeks, effectively removing many traders from the market. As a result, the current market conditions suggest a healthier reset that is not overheated, potentially paving the way for a steady price recovery.
Recent statistics reveal that Bitcoin’s open interest has dropped by 28%, from $71.8 billion on December 18 to $51.8 billion on April 8. This indicates the scale of the ongoing de-leveraging event. While this situation may cause short-term volatility, it positions BTC for long-term stability, providing an advantage amid current uncertainties.
Analyst Insights: In a recent post, Sina, co-founder of 21st Capital, stated that “Bitcoin is getting significantly de-risked here.” He noted that Bitcoin might have completed 75-80% of its price correction, which saw a decline from $109,000 to $74,500. Historically, prices can drop by as much as 34% during similar trends; currently, Bitcoin has decreased by 31% from its all-time high. A further drop to the $72,000-$70,000 range would align with this historical trend.
Sina mentioned, “Absent a recession, $70K is my worst-case scenario. While the macro backdrop remains grim, we believe Bitcoin is deeply undervalued for long-term investors.”
However, immediate recovery prospects seem low. Researcher Axel Adler Jr. predicts that BTC may trade sideways within a “volatility corridor.” This corridor is defined by a price range of $75,000 to $96,000, derived from the realized prices of short-term holders over various timeframes. Adler Jr. cautioned that maintaining a price above the 365-day simple moving average is crucial; falling below this level could lead to a new yearly low below $74,500, with $70,000 being the ideal target mentioned earlier.
This article does not constitute investment advice. All investment and trading moves involve risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
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