Will Trump's Assassination Attempt Boost His Popularity? The 'Bolsonaro Effect'

Will Trump's Assassination Attempt Boost His Popularity? The 'Bolsonaro Effect'

Assassination attempts often boost a politician's popularity, as seen with Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro. Will the same happen to Donald Trump?

Following the assassination attempt, Trump has been officially selected as the Republican presidential nominee, making him a strong contender in the US general election. Political scientists believe the attack could garner him additional sympathy and potentially make him more likely to win.

The 'Bolsonaro Effect'

The attack on Bolsonaro in 2018, where he was critically injured, led to him winning the following presidential election with a significant majority. This has led experts to believe that a similar effect could happen with Trump. The attack can make the candidate appear vulnerable, but also a savior for their society.

Beyond Trump

The 'Bolsonaro Effect' is not unique. US President Ronald Reagan was re-elected by a landslide after an assassination attempt in 1981. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi also won re-election after surviving a bomb attack in 2013.

The Dangers of Polarization

While political violence often targets right-wing leaders, it's important to remember that attacks on political figures can happen across the spectrum. This was evident in the assassination of Ecuadorian presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio in 2023, who had been critical of corruption and violence in his country.

The attack on Trump, however, is particularly troubling because the shooter was a member of the Republican Party. This highlights the growing polarization in American society and the increasing acceptance of violence as a political tool.

Key Takeaway: The attack on Trump could have significant political implications, potentially boosting his popularity. However, it also highlights a worrying trend of increasing political violence and polarization, especially in the United States.