Will Bitcoin's $12B Options Expiry Spark Market Volatility? Insights from Deribit

Key Insights on Bitcoin's Upcoming Options Expiry

On Friday, a significant $12.13 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) options is set to expire on Deribit, but expectations for market volatility are low. Despite the scale of the expiry, indicators suggest a calm market environment.

What You Need to Know:

• 139,000 BTC option contracts are expiring, representing nearly 45% of the total active contracts.
• The bitcoin 30-day implied volatility index has declined from 62% to 48%, indicating subdued volatility expectations.
• More than 65% of the open interest is in call options, providing bullish exposure, while the remainder is in put options for downside protection.

Market Conditions

• The annualized perpetual futures basis is around 5%, suggesting a calmer funding environment.
• Deribit CEO Luuk Strijers notes that the overall setup—low DVOL, moderate basis, and balanced options positioning—points to a subdued expiry unless external catalysts emerge.

Current Market Sentiment

• Options skew indicates some downside hedging ahead of the expiry, but the broader outlook remains constructive.
• The 3-Day Put-Call Skew is slightly positive, indicating immediate downside protection demand, while the 30-Day Put-Call Skew is slightly negative, suggesting a more bullish outlook.
• In addition to BTC, ether (ETH) options worth $2.8 billion are also expiring on the same day.

For more detailed statistics and insights, you can check out the Deribit metrics.