Summary:
Higher US tariffs may impact Bitcoin demand and inflationary pressures.
BTC-spot ETF market faced $3,543 million in outflows in February.
The White House crypto summit on March 7 could influence future regulations.
Senator Lummis proposes the acquisition of one million BTC, which could significantly affect supply.
BTC's price outlook depends on ETF inflows, tariff policies, and potential US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve developments.
Bitcoin is currently facing significant challenges as higher US tariffs threaten to increase import costs, potentially leading to inflationary pressures and impacting the Federal Reserve's rate decisions. This situation may dampen investor interest in BTC.
Recent ETF Trends
According to Farside Investors, the BTC-spot ETF market has shown concerning trends:
- iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) experienced net outflows of $1,175 million, marking the largest outflow since its launch in January 2024.
- Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) saw net outflows of $569 million, extending its streak to five weeks.
- Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) reported net outflows of $189 million.
Overall, all eleven BTC-spot ETF issuers faced net outflows, leading to a challenging February for Bitcoin and the broader market, with total net outflows reaching $3,543 million compared to $5,159 million in inflows the previous month. This weakening demand has contributed to Bitcoin's 17.79% decline in February.
White House Crypto Summit Insights
On March 7, the White House will host its inaugural crypto summit, where topics of innovation and regulation will be discussed. Key attendees include prominent figures from the crypto industry and members of the President's Working Group on Digital Assets, which was established by an Executive Order on January 23.
This Working Group's evaluation of a strategic national digital assets stockpile raises concerns about the government's commitment to a national Strategic BTC Reserve (SBR), which may have influenced Bitcoin's recent price retreat. Senator Cynthia Lummis proposed the Bitcoin Act, aiming for the US government to acquire one million BTC over five years, potentially driving prices to new heights.
BTC Price Outlook: Key Drivers
The future of Bitcoin's price hinges on various factors, including:
- Bullish Scenario: Increased BTC-spot ETF inflows and advancements toward a US SBR could alleviate tariff risks and a dovish Federal Reserve, possibly pushing Bitcoin beyond its record high of $109,312.
- Bearish Scenario: Opposition to the SBR, continued US tariffs, and a hawkish Fed could see Bitcoin drop below $80,000.
Technical Analysis
After February's losses, Bitcoin is currently trading below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) but above the 200-day EMA, indicating a mixed trend. A breakout above the $86,263 resistance could lead to a target of $90,742. Conversely, a drop below the 200-day EMA may push Bitcoin towards $80,000. With a 31.16 RSI, Bitcoin could enter oversold territory soon.
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