![Kamala Harris](https://www.usatoday.com/gcdn/authoring/authoring-images/2024/08/18/USAT/74852812007-20240818-t-225934-z-1028132640-rc-2-mi-9-ayynpl-rtrmadp-3-usaelectionharris.JPG?width=660&height=449&fit=crop&format=pjpg&auto=webp)

Democratic presidential nominee **Vice President Kamala Harris** maintains her **narrow lead** over Republican nominee **former President Donald Trump** as the betting favorite to win the White House. The odds shifted in favor of the vice president during the **Harris-Walz ticket's honeymoon**, remaining steady ahead of the **Democratic National Convention**, which opens Monday.

As per bookmaker **Bet365**, the current odds show Harris leading at **-125**, while Trump stands at **even money**. This convention could provide a significant boost for Harris, offering a chance to solidify her position before a competitive campaign stretch.

### Presidential Election Odds Timeline

#### Presidential Election Odds as of August 11

**Bet 365**
- **Kamala Harris**: -125
- **Donald Trump**: EVEN

**Bovada**
- **Kamala Harris**: -115
- **Donald Trump**: -105

**BetOnline**
- **Kamala Harris**: -120
- **Donald Trump**: EVEN

**Oddschecker**
- **Kamala Harris**: -106
- **Donald Trump**: +116

### How Accurate Have Election Odds Been in Past Presidential Elections?

Historically, the betting favorite has only **lost twice since 1866**. The upsets occurred in **1948**, when Harry Truman overcame odds to defeat Thomas Dewey, and in **2016**, when Trump triumphed over Hillary Clinton despite unfavorable odds. Biden was the betting favorite in the **2020 race**, maintaining a lead from May through November.

### Watch the Democratic National Convention Live

Vice President Kamala Harris maintained her betting lead in the presidential election odds heading into the Democratic National Convention on Monday.

Kamala Harris Leads Betting Odds Against Trump Ahead of Democratic National Convention

### Cliff Asness on Bitcoin's Speculative Nature

Cliff Asness, co-founder of **AQR Capital Management**, recently voiced his concerns regarding Bitcoin, suggesting that it may be in a **speculative bubble**. His comments came in light of the cryptocurrency's remarkable rise, surpassing **$100,000** following the recent presidential election.

In an interview on **CNBC's 'Money Movers'**, Asness expressed a bearish view, leaning towards the idea of a bubble. He noted that merely changing the price would not alter his stance; rather, he would need to see a **practical use case** for Bitcoin to reconsider his investment approach.

### Identified Uses for Cryptocurrency

Asness identified three main uses for cryptocurrencies:
- **Speculation**
- Utility in **conflict-ridden nations**
- Paying **cyber ransoms**

Despite acknowledging the existence of a **price trend**, Asness admitted the difficulty in pinpointing a fundamental trend for cryptocurrencies due to the ambiguity surrounding their fundamentals. He believes that many trend followers are likely **long** on Bitcoin.

### Risks of Shorting Bitcoin

While Asness holds a skeptical view of cryptocurrencies, he refrained from betting against them. He highlighted the **high volatility** of Bitcoin, cautioning that shorting assets with an annual volatility of **100%** poses substantial risks, as many investors have learned from past concentrated shorts affecting their portfolios.

### Market Context

The discussion comes on the heels of a **120% rally** in 2024, largely fueled by optimism surrounding the election of **President-elect Donald Trump**. Investors are hopeful that his presidency will usher in a favorable environment for cryptocurrencies, including potential **industry deregulation** and the establishment of a **national strategic bitcoin reserve**.

Cliff Asness says Bitcoin is a speculative bubble

Cliff Asness Warns: Is Bitcoin Just a Speculative Bubble?

As the old saying goes, **the purpose of a system is what it does, not what it claims to do**. For years, the Federal Government’s "system" in Washington, D.C. has entrenched itself while **siphoning wealth** from the American economy. The result has been **trillions of dollars in debt**, evaporated savings from unchecked inflation, and businesses burdened by **regulatory overreach**.

Despite promises of **fiscal responsibility**, the machinery of government has prioritized control and redistribution over growth and stability. **Bitcoin** offers an alternative to this **broken system**.

### Bitcoin Mining: Resilience Amidst Economic Turmoil

Bitcoin mining is a critical component of the network’s security and economic model, and **recent data** highlights its continued robustness. A **JPMorgan report** noted that mining profitability increased for the second consecutive month in December, with miners earning an average of **$57,100 per exahash per day** – up **10% from November**. This trend reflects the positive correlation between bitcoin’s rising price and miner revenue, even as the broader economic landscape remains **volatile**.

The network’s **hashrate** grew by **6% in December** to an all-time high of **779 EH/s**, demonstrating the collective strength of the **decentralized mining ecosystem**. Yet, the mining sector is facing challenges, with the total market cap of 14 publicly listed bitcoin mining firms falling by **23%** to **$28 billion**.

### The Federal Reserve’s Role in Economic Distortion

Meanwhile, shifts within the **Federal Reserve** could signal a new era for financial regulation. **Michael Barr**, the Fed’s Vice Chair for Supervision, announced his impending departure, coinciding with a stated goal of reducing regulatory burdens. **Inflation remains at 3%**, which is **50% above the Fed’s target**, highlighting ongoing structural weaknesses in the economy.

Nevertheless, there are reasons for optimism. If regulatory rollbacks and **pro-growth policies** take root, innovation could thrive and offset the damage caused by years of **reckless spending** and overregulation. However, the **debasement trade** – accumulating bitcoin to protect against currency debasement and government overreach – isn’t going away anytime soon.

### Missed Opportunity For a Strategic Bitcoin Stockpile?

A recent federal court ruling authorized the **Department of Justice (DOJ)** to liquidate **69,370 bitcoins** seized from the Silk Road marketplace. By selling at current levels, the DOJ may unintentionally strengthen the argument for a **strategic bitcoin reserve**, especially with the incoming administration’s pro-bitcoin stance.

### Sovereign Moves and Policy Shifts

Sovereign interest in bitcoin is not limited to the United States. In Canada, the political landscape is shifting following **Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation**. Bitcoin advocates have rallied behind **Pierre Poilievre**, whose pro-bitcoin stance has made him the frontrunner for Canada’s next election.

In addition, Thailand has launched a **pilot program** to allow foreign visitors to use bitcoin for everyday transactions, while the **UAE-based Phoenix Group** has opened a **50-megawatt bitcoin mining facility** in North Dakota, indicating the global interconnectedness of the bitcoin mining industry.

### The Road Ahead: Opting Out of a Failing System

While governments and corporations vie for strategic bitcoin positions, individual adoption remains critical. The true power of bitcoin lies in its **independence**, distinguishing it from other financial assets. As 2025 unfolds, the landscape is poised for further **seismic shifts**. Whether through strategic reserves or individual accumulation, the adoption of bitcoin as a safeguard against economic instability is accelerating. Bitcoin remains an unmatched tool for **financial sovereignty**.

For years, the Federal Government’s "system" in Washington, D.C. has siphoned wealth from the American economy. With bitcoin, that may finally change.

Unlocking Financial Freedom: How Bitcoin Can Help You Escape the Rigged System

The crypto market is currently **deep in the red** ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration, influenced by an **unexpected jobs report** and fears of **higher-than-expected inflation data**. This situation highlights the growing **interconnection** between the crypto market and broader macroeconomic trends.

### Cryptocurrencies to Watch

Here’s a closer look at the cryptocurrencies that are capturing attention this week:

#### Bitcoin (BTC)
Bitcoin has seen a **drop of over 9%** in the past week, trading at **$90,303**. The market is bracing for increased volatility as Trump prepares for his inauguration, with speculation surrounding potential **favorable policies for crypto miners**.

![Bitcoin](https://i.kinja-img.com/image/upload/c_fit,q_60,w_645/21216b4e9d998690a33858235e380fae.jpg)
*Illustration: Chesnot (Getty Images)*

#### Ether (ETH)
Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency, has underperformed Bitcoin, posting a **17% loss** over the past week, now at **$3,037**. The decline is attributed to a **sustained outflow from Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs)**.

![Ether](https://i.kinja-img.com/image/upload/c_fit,q_60,w_645/851a541188a1997f04c836300c99d3ec.jpg)
*Illustration: Dan Kitwood (Getty Images)*

#### XRP
XRP is under the spotlight as Ripple faces a pivotal hearing on January 15 regarding its legal battle with the **U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)**. Currently, XRP is trading at **$2.45**, with a slight increase of **0.74%** over the week.

![XRP](https://i.kinja-img.com/image/upload/c_fit,q_60,w_645/cb16ac2c2166251d60f19049b7e3fefd.jpg)
*Illustration: INA FASSBENDER (Getty Images)*

#### Dogecoin (DOGE)
Dogecoin is also in focus, trading at **$0.32** with a **17% weekly decline**. Speculation about potential price swings is fueled by Elon Musk's close ties to Trump.

![Dogecoin](https://i.kinja-img.com/image/upload/c_fit,q_60,w_645/58283c555db5f5c77ecad1105bb935d7.jpg)
*Illustration: Chesnot (Getty Images)*

#### Bitget Token (BGB)
In contrast, **Bitget Token (BGB)** is on the rise, trading at **$6.6** with a **5.8% increase** this week. This growth is linked to Bitget introducing **Solana limit order functionality** and burning **40% of its circulating tokens**, reducing supply and potentially increasing value.

![Bitget Token](https://i.kinja-img.com/image/upload/c_fit,q_60,w_645/3ed7a16a14bf12559f6912cd77bc1cf5.jpg)
*Image: SOPA Images (Getty Images)*

The crypto market is in the deep red ahead of Donald Trump's inauguration

This Week's Crypto Watch: Bitcoin, XRP, Dogecoin & More Amid Market Turmoil

### A Pastor's Dream Turns into a Nightmare
A Miami pastor, **Francier Obando Pinillo**, has been indicted on **26 counts of fraud** for allegedly running a cryptocurrency scam that defrauded unsuspecting investors out of millions between late **2021 and 2023**. Pinillo, who led a Spanish-speaking church in **Pasco, Washington**, reportedly claimed that his investment scheme, dubbed **"Solano Fi"**, was inspired by a divine dream.

Pinillo's scam was heavily marketed through social media and his church's pulpit, promising investors a **miraculous 34.9% monthly return** with no risk, thanks to a process called **cryptocurrency staking**. However, the indictment reveals that the only miracle was how quickly investors' funds disappeared into accounts controlled by Pinillo and his accomplices.

When investors sought to withdraw their funds, they were met with a series of excuses, including claims that **"crypto markets stink today"** and demands to bring in new investors to cash out their accounts. Additionally, Pinillo purportedly charged **"repair" fees** to maintain the investment system.

U.S. Attorney **Vanessa Waldref** highlighted the challenges of cryptocurrency scams, noting that fraudsters often move funds to international accounts, complicating recovery efforts for victims. If convicted, Pinillo faces up to **20 years in prison**.

### Bitcoin Hard Drive Recovery Attempt Fails
In a separate story, **James Howells** from Newport, Wales, faced disappointment when a judge dismissed his lawsuit to excavate a landfill site in search of a hard drive he believes contains **Bitcoin worth approximately £598 million ($725 million)**. Howells claims the drive was accidentally thrown away in **2013** and has been battling the Newport City Council for access to the site. The judge ruled there were no reasonable grounds for the claim, leaving Howells feeling frustrated and without recourse. He is now contemplating launching his own cryptocurrency as a new venture.

Plus: Man who tossed Bitcoin drive worth millions barred from digging in dump

Pastor Indicted for Alleged $26 Million Cryptocurrency Scam Inspired by a 'Dream'

### Cryptocurrency Market under Trump

As the United States gears up for **Donald Trump’s inauguration** on January 20, all eyes are on the **cryptocurrency markets**. Following **Bitcoin’s historic price surge** to $100,000 in December 2024, the cryptocurrency community is buzzing with anticipation about Trump’s promise to establish the US as the **“crypto capital of the planet.”** Analysts predict Bitcoin’s price could soar between **$78,000 and $250,000 in 2025**.

### The Allure of Speculative Investments

While **blockchain technology** offers vast applications beyond crypto payments, the **price surges** of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and various **meme coins** dominate public attention. Investors are often driven by the prospect of **short-term profits** rather than the asset’s underlying value. Meme coins, heavily influenced by **social media culture**, often lack substantial utility, leading to highly speculative investments.

### Institutional Interest and Regulatory Changes

With expectations for a **more favorable regulatory environment** under the Trump administration, institutional interest in cryptocurrencies is rising. Major players like **BlackRock** are diving into the crypto derivatives market, enhancing liquidity and attracting more investors. However, this speculative nature raises concerns about potential **market bubbles**, reminiscent of the dotcom era.

### Risks of Financial Contagion

Financial bubbles can lead to significant market collapses, triggering a **contagion effect** across various sectors. Recent events like the **Terra Luna** and **FTX collapses** highlight the interconnected vulnerabilities between cryptocurrencies and traditional finance, as seen with **Silicon Valley Bank’s** bankruptcy in 2023. The collapse of major crypto firms can have far-reaching impacts on traditional markets, with investors facing swift sell-offs at the first sign of trouble.

### The Role of Influencers in Crypto Promotion

Influential figures like **Elon Musk** have significantly impacted meme coin prices, often leading to **pump-and-dump schemes**. The **SEC** has initiated investigations into celebrities promoting cryptocurrencies without disclosing their financial interests. As the regulatory landscape shifts, the crypto community is concerned about the potential for increased market manipulation and a lack of consumer protection.

### A Step Back in Financial Freedom

While easing regulations might seem beneficial for **crypto asset prices**, it could ultimately hinder the pursuit of **transparency and accountability** in the financial sector. Strong political endorsements of crypto could undermine its **decentralized ethos**, leaving investors vulnerable to financial losses.

In 2025, the crypto market is poised to go mainstream, but investors should remain cautious of the inherent risks and challenges that lie ahead.  

*Larisa Yarovaya is an associate professor of finance and director of the Centre for Digital Finance at Southampton Business School.*

His easing of regulations could leave many unprotected from financial manipulation, misconduct and bursting bubbles, says Larisa Yarovaya, an associate professor of finance

Cryptocurrency's Mainstream Surge Under Trump: A Double-Edged Sword for Investors

### MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Accumulation Continues

Michael Saylor's **MicroStrategy (MSTR)** has made headlines again by increasing its **bitcoin (BTC)** holdings for the **tenth consecutive week**. In the week ending January 12, **MicroStrategy purchased 2,530 BTC for $243 million**, bringing its total holdings to an impressive **450,000 BTC**. The average price of this latest acquisition was **$95,972**, while the overall average purchase price for the company's holdings now stands at **$62,691**.

### Market Reactions

Despite these significant purchases, shares of MicroStrategy are down nearly **5%** in premarket trading, coinciding with a similar dip in the price of bitcoin, which is currently hovering just above **$90,000**.

### Additional Acquisitions by Semler Scientific

In related news, **Semler Scientific (SMLR)** has also expanded its bitcoin portfolio, acquiring an additional **237 BTC for $23.3 million**. This purchase was made using proceeds from an **at-the-market (ATM)** offering and operating cash flow, with an average buy price of **$98,267**. Semler now holds a total of **2,321 BTC**, with an aggregate investment of **$191.9 million** and an average purchase price of **$82,867**. Shares of Semler have seen a decline of almost **7%** in premarket trading.

### Analyst's Note

**Disclaimer:** The author, James Van Straten, is a senior analyst at CoinDesk and holds shares in MicroStrategy and Semler Scientific. 

![James Van Straten](https://www.coindesk.com/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.sanity.io%2Fimages%2Fs3y3vcno%2Fproduction%2Ff36b57a149322aa0611866fd05406f32ee68421f-512x512.png%3Fw%3D64%26h%3D64%26fit%3Dcrop%26crop%3Dfocalpoint%26auto%3Dformat&w=1080&q=75&dpl=dpl_8sUDf8q1fC1hKygj83X2Zug7BKAF)

The Michael Saylor-led company added to its bitcoin stack for the 10th consecutive week.

MicroStrategy's Bold Bitcoin Acquisition: 2,530 BTC Added in a Record Streak!

### BTC Update
Between **December 16, 2024** and **January 10, 2025**, Semler Scientific acquired **237 bitcoins** for **$23.3 million** at an average price of **$98,267** per bitcoin, inclusive of fees and expenses. This brings their total holdings to **2,321 bitcoins**, purchased for an aggregate of **$191.9 million** at an average price of **$82,687** per bitcoin.

### ATM Update
Semler Scientific has been actively utilizing an **ATM offering** with Cantor Fitzgerald, increasing their total offering to **$150.0 million**. As of January 10, 2025, they have raised approximately **$121.8 million** in gross proceeds from this initiative.

### BTC Yield as a Key Performance Indicator (KPI)
From **October 1, 2024** to **January 10, 2025**, the company's **BTC Yield** was an impressive **72.6%**. Following their treasury strategy initiated in mid-2024, the yield from **July 1, 2024** to **January 10, 2025** reached **99.3%**. This KPI helps Semler assess the performance of its bitcoin acquisition strategy, which aims to be beneficial for stockholders.

### Important Information about BTC Yield KPI
**BTC Yield** measures the percentage change period-to-period of the ratio between Semler's bitcoin holdings and its **Assumed Diluted Shares Outstanding**. The company has emphasized that this KPI should not be confused with traditional financial performance metrics, as it does not represent a return on investment or income generated from operations.

### Forward-Looking Statements
This announcement contains forward-looking statements about Semler's strategy regarding bitcoin and its ATM offerings. Risks include market volatility and the company's ability to generate cash from operations.

### About Semler Scientific, Inc.
Semler Scientific is dedicated to developing technology products for healthcare providers, with a focus on combating chronic diseases. They have adopted bitcoin as their primary treasury asset, showcasing a commitment to integrating cryptocurrency into their financial strategy.

Semler Scientific acquires 237 bitcoins at $98,267 average price, bringing total holdings to 2,321 BTC. Company raises $121.8M through expanded ATM offering with Cantor Fitzgerald.

Kamala Harris Leads Betting Odds Against Trump Ahead of Democratic National Convention

Summary:

Presidential Election Odds Timeline

Presidential Election Odds as of August 11

How Accurate Have Election Odds Been in Past Presidential Elections?

Watch the Democratic National Convention Live

Comments

Subscribe our Newsletter

BitcoinToday.app

Other Latest News

Cliff Asness Warns: Is Bitcoin Just a Speculative Bubble?

Unlocking Financial Freedom: How Bitcoin Can Help You Escape the Rigged System

This Week's Crypto Watch: Bitcoin, XRP, Dogecoin & More Amid Market Turmoil

Pastor Indicted for Alleged $26 Million Cryptocurrency Scam Inspired by a 'Dream'

Cryptocurrency's Mainstream Surge Under Trump: A Double-Edged Sword for Investors

MicroStrategy's Bold Bitcoin Acquisition: 2,530 BTC Added in a Record Streak!

Semler Scientific Boosts Bitcoin Portfolio to 2,321 BTC with $23.3M Investment: What You Need to Know!

Other Latest News

Cliff Asness Warns: Is Bitcoin Just a Speculative Bubble?

Unlocking Financial Freedom: How Bitcoin Can Help You Escape the Rigged System

This Week's Crypto Watch: Bitcoin, XRP, Dogecoin & More Amid Market Turmoil

Pastor Indicted for Alleged $26 Million Cryptocurrency Scam Inspired by a 'Dream'

Cryptocurrency's Mainstream Surge Under Trump: A Double-Edged Sword for Investors

MicroStrategy's Bold Bitcoin Acquisition: 2,530 BTC Added in a Record Streak!

Semler Scientific Boosts Bitcoin Portfolio to 2,321 BTC with $23.3M Investment: What You Need to Know!