Summary:
Gemini predicts $5 billion in net inflows into spot ether ETFs in the first six months of trading.
Ether's market value relative to bitcoin is near multiyear lows, suggesting a potential catch-up trade.
A return to the median ether/bitcoin ratio could result in a 20% rally to 0.067.
Gemini cites the thriving stablecoin environment and robust on-chain dynamics as factors contributing to a favorable risk-reward of an ETH catch-up trade.
Inflows below $3 billion would be disappointing, while inflows exceeding $5 billion would indicate a strong showing, with $7.5 billion representing a significant upside surprise.
Gemini, a cryptocurrency exchange, forecasts significant inflows into spot ether (ETH) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US, with an estimated $5 billion in net inflows within the first six months of trading. This prediction is based on the observation that ether's market value relative to bitcoin remains near multiyear lows, suggesting a potential catch-up trade. If the ether/bitcoin ratio returns to its median value over the past three years, it could surge nearly 20%, reaching 0.067. Furthermore, Gemini highlights the thriving stablecoin environment and robust on-chain dynamics as contributing factors to the favorable risk-reward of an ETH catch-up trade. While inflows below $3 billion would be considered a disappointment, Gemini believes inflows exceeding $5 billion would signal a strong showing, with $7.5 billion representing a significant upside surprise.
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