## Ethereum Technical Analysis

On **September 9, 2024**, **Ethereum's price** hovers around **$2,309**, facing a significant challenge as it attempts to overcome a **strong downtrend** observed across multiple timeframes. The current market dynamics for **ETH** indicate a pivotal moment that could determine its trajectory in the coming days.

Despite efforts to rally, **Ethereum** remains under pressure, and traders are closely monitoring key resistance levels. A breakthrough could signal a potential upward movement, but the prevailing bearish sentiment raises concerns about further declines.

As we analyze the market, it’s crucial to keep an eye on **technical indicators** that may suggest future price movements. Understanding these trends will be vital for investors looking to navigate the complexities of the **cryptocurrency market** effectively.

On Sept. 9, 2024, ethereum’s price hovers at $2,309 as it struggles to break from a strong downtrend, observed across multiple timeframes.

Ethereum's Price Struggles: Will It Break Free from Downtrend Resistance?

**MicroStrategy** has seen a **6.5% surge** today, reigniting investor confidence as **Bitcoin** stabilizes after a turbulent period. The company, led by **Michael Saylor**, is well-known for its strategy of converting its stock value into **Bitcoin**. This unique approach thrives on keeping a premium between its stock price and Bitcoin holdings, a balance that faced challenges during Bitcoin's recent downturn. Today's increase indicates that investors are not ready to dismiss Saylor's high-stakes strategy just yet.  

**Riot Platforms** also made waves with a **1% gain**, continuing its upward momentum. Unlike MicroStrategy, Riot focuses on **Bitcoin mining** and has strategically increased its reserves by purchasing more cryptocurrency. Over the past two weeks, Riot has added **over 6,000 Bitcoins** to its balance sheet, bolstered by a **$579 million debt raise**. Saylor has praised Riot's aggressive accumulation strategy, dubbing it as being on the **Bitcoin standard**. However, Riot's growing dependence on debt introduces potential risks that cautious investors should consider.  

For investors looking at these opportunities, the message is clear: **Bitcoin-linked stocks** like MicroStrategy and Riot Platforms present exciting yet volatile prospects. MicroStrategy's rebound indicates that its strategy is still in play, while Riot's consistent growth reflects increasing confidence in its long-term viability. Nevertheless, as both companies remain heavily influenced by Bitcoin's unpredictable nature, many investors may find direct investment in the cryptocurrency itself to be a simpler and more attractive option in the dynamic crypto landscape.

Two crypto giants make waves as Bitcoin steadies--are these stocks your next big opportunity?

Could Bitcoin's Stability Spark a New Crypto Boom? MicroStrategy and Riot Platforms Lead the Charge!

### A Stunning Fraud in Cryptocurrency

A **Saratoga resident** has fallen victim to a **devastating cryptocurrency scam**, losing approximately **$5.5 million**. The victim was contacted online by individuals posing as cryptocurrency traders, who skillfully manipulated them into investing in **fraudulent schemes**.

### The Incident

On **December 13**, the victim reported being deceived by these scammers, highlighting the **growing dangers** of online investment schemes. This case underscores the need for vigilance in the cryptocurrency market, where **fraudulent activities** are becoming increasingly sophisticated.

### Ongoing Criminal Activity

In addition to this scam, local authorities have been busy tackling other criminal activities in the area, including theft and burglary. A series of incidents in December have raised concerns about safety and security in Saratoga. 

**Key Takeaway:** Always verify the legitimacy of cryptocurrency investments and be cautious of unsolicited offers online. The **risks** in the digital currency space are very real and can lead to significant financial losses.

Saratoga Resident Loses $5.5 Million in Shocking Cryptocurrency Scam

## What Happened to Bitcoin's Santa Rally?

Historically, **the fourth quarter** is Bitcoin's (BTC) strongest period; however, this year, it's showing signs of **underperformance**. 

As we approach the end of 2024, Bitcoin is **sliding** instead of rising, contrary to its usual **year-end Santa rally**. Typically, Bitcoin adds about **2.8% in the 51st week**, but this week it's on track for an **11% drop**. Additionally, while it usually gains around **3% in week 52**, it has dropped in **five of the past six years**, indicating a bleak outlook.

The **fourth quarter** has generally been one of Bitcoin’s strongest, with an average rise of **85%** since 2013, but in 2024, it’s less than **50%**. This decline is reminiscent of early 2021, though it’s occurring a bit later than expected for Santa to arrive.

For context, on **January 8, 2021**, Bitcoin was around **$40,000**, and by **January 27**, it had dropped to **$30,000**, marking a **25% slide**. Currently, there’s a **15% drawdown**, but it’s important to note that the earlier drop was amidst a **bull run** that escalated from **$10,000 in December 2020** to a peak of **$70,000 in November 2021**.

Despite the current downturn, the **realized price** (the average on-chain cost for all tokens in circulation) continues to increase, suggesting that investors are buying coins at higher prices. The price also remains above the **short-term holder's realized price (STH RP)**, which is currently at **$84,000**. This level historically serves as support during bull markets. 

From **December 2020 to April 2021**, Bitcoin stayed above this STH RP and used it as a support level. As long as Bitcoin remains above **$84,000**, the potential for a **bull market** remains intact.

![BTC: On Chain Cost Basis (Glassnode)](https://www.coindesk.com/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.sanity.io%2Fimages%2Fs3y3vcno%2Fproduction%2F4e2e65429a3a7eac79d9d3ecb8729941f109417b-1800x1013.png%3Fauto%3Dformat&w=1920&q=75&dpl=dpl_EoiznyFumwBi7WMyxdCqjgU977J1)

*BTC: On Chain Cost Basis (Glassnode)*

Historically, the fourth quarter is the bitcoin's best; this year it's underperforming.

Why Bitcoin's Santa Rally is a No-Show This Year: Insights and Analysis

### Major Changes for Chivo Wallet
El Salvador is set to **privatize or shut down** its government-created cryptocurrency wallet, **Chivo**, which was established by President **Nayib Bukele** when he made **bitcoin** legal tender in 2021. This announcement follows a **$1.4 billion loan agreement** with the **International Monetary Fund (IMF)** that scrutinized the country's controversial adoption of bitcoin.

### What’s Next for Chivo?
Stacy Herbert, director of Bukele's **National Bitcoin Office**, stated on social media platform **X** that while Chivo will be sold or wound down, the government will continue to **purchase bitcoin** for its **Strategic Bitcoin Reserve**, possibly at an accelerated pace. However, she did not disclose the number of users of the Chivo wallet, which was launched in **September 2021** to facilitate bitcoin payments for Salvadorans.

### IMF's Stance on Bitcoin
The IMF emphasized that under the new loan agreement, the acceptance of bitcoin by the private sector would be **voluntary**, and that risks associated with bitcoin are being actively **mitigated**. Furthermore, it noted that the public sector's engagement in bitcoin-related economic activities would be **constrained**.

### Bitcoin's Journey in El Salvador
In a bold move back in 2021, El Salvador became the **first country** to recognize bitcoin as legal tender, aiming to rejuvenate its dollar-dependent economy. However, in a recent address, Bukele acknowledged that the introduction of bitcoin was the **most unpopular** decision made by his administration. A survey indicated that about **88%** of Salvadorans did not use bitcoin in 2023.

### Current Bitcoin Holdings
According to the National Bitcoin Office, El Salvador currently holds **5,969 bitcoins**, valued at approximately **$582 million**.

Created by its bitcoin fan President Nayib Bukele

El Salvador's Chivo Wallet Faces Closure as Government Shifts Bitcoin Strategy

### Bitcoin Trading Below Record Highs

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading **13% below** its record high of approximately **$108,000**, marking the largest discount since the U.S. election in early November. This decline has drawn attention as the largest cryptocurrency has frequently hovered around **10% below** its record price, which some investors term a **correction**.

![BTCUSD (TradingView)](https://www.coindesk.com/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.sanity.io%2Fimages%2Fs3y3vcno%2Fproduction%2F0d29a545f2935e228cbfb5f1b3e580327fd1c50b-1305x802.png%3Fauto%3Dformat&w=1920&q=75&dpl=dpl_EoiznyFumwBi7WMyxdCqjgU977J1)

### Selling Pressure from Long-Term Holders

The current selling pressure is largely attributed to **long-term holders (LTHs)**, defined by **Glassnode** as investors who have held Bitcoin for at least **155 days**. These investors typically sell during price surges after accumulating Bitcoin during lower price periods. Recently, LTHs have been offloading significant amounts of BTC, reducing their total holdings from around **14.2 million BTC** in mid-September to approximately **13.2 million BTC**.

On a notable day, Thursday, LTHs sold nearly **70,000 BTC**, representing the **fourth-largest one-day sell-off** this year according to **Glassnode** data.

### Rise of Short-Term Holders

Conversely, for every seller, there must be a buyer. In this scenario, **short-term holders (STHs)** have accumulated about **1.3 million BTC** during the same timeframe, acquiring coins from LTHs and beyond. However, the recent narrative indicates that LTHs are now looking to sell more than STHs are willing to purchase, contributing to the price decline to around **$94,500**.

### Market Dynamics and Supply

Currently, there are **19.8 million** Bitcoin tokens in circulation, with an additional **2.8 million** held on exchanges. This balance is decreasing, with about **200,000 BTC** having exited exchanges over the past few months. The behavior of these cohorts will be crucial in monitoring Bitcoin's price activity going forward.

![BTC: Long/Short Term Holder Threshold (Glassnode)](https://www.coindesk.com/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.sanity.io%2Fimages%2Fs3y3vcno%2Fproduction%2F8cf92595fc8a07039a0b9a054735e1928061f1d9-1800x1013.png%3Fauto%3Dformat&w=1920&q=75&dpl=dpl_EoiznyFumwBi7WMyxdCqjgU977J1)

Bitcoin is at the biggest discount to its record high since the U.S. election.

Why Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Are Selling: Insights on the Market Shift

### Major Bitcoin Whale Activity

Yesterday, the **Federal Reserve** announced a **25 basis point rate cut**, prompting a significant **market retrace**, with **Bitcoin (BTC)** leading the downturn. After peaking at **$108,000**, BTC retraced **8%**, testing key liquidity levels before stabilizing above **$98,000**. This volatility extended beyond crypto, affecting broader markets as well.

### Whale Movement Raises Eyebrows

Adding to this intrigue, **CryptoQuant** reported that a long-term **Bitcoin whale** moved **over 72,000 BTC**, including **8,000 BTC aged 5-7 years**. Such substantial transfers often signal critical market shifts, as they can heavily influence **market sentiment** and liquidity.

Despite the recent downturn, Bitcoin's ability to hold above key liquidity zones has provided some reassurance to investors. However, **questions linger**: is this drop merely a shakeout to fuel further gains, or could it indicate a deeper correction?

### Analyzing the Implications

Analysts are closely monitoring Bitcoin's next moves, especially with the backdrop of significant whale activity and pivotal macroeconomic policies. The coming days could be crucial for BTC's short-term trajectory.

### The Whales' Strategy

After Bitcoin's breakout from **$67K to $108K**, market sentiment has shifted, with large investors actively repositioning their holdings. Notably, this is the **eighth transaction** in the past two weeks, indicating a pattern of substantial whale movements. These transactions could be interpreted as:
- **Market Top Signal**: Whales may believe BTC has peaked and are selling to capitalize on the price surge.
- **Preparation for Altseason**: Alternatively, they might be rebalancing their portfolios to invest in altcoins, anticipating a market shift.

### Current Market Structure

Currently, Bitcoin is trading at **$102,300**, having tested local demand at **$98,695**. The price structure remains bullish, with a formation of **higher highs and higher lows**. For BTC to maintain momentum and reach new highs, it must break above the **$103,600** resistance level.

However, a failure to do so could trigger a correction, particularly if BTC drops below the **$100,000** support level. Traders will keep a close eye on these levels to determine whether the bullish trend can continue or if a short-term correction is imminent.

![Bitcoin Spent Output Age Bands](https://bitcoinist.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/btc_ebe8ac.png?resize=980%2C551)  
*Bitcoin Spent Output Age Bands | Source: [Maartunn on X](https://208.87.241.209/JA_Maartun/status/1869473235471151281?__cpo=aHR0cHM6Ly94LmNvbQ)*  
![BTC holding a bullish structure](https://bitcoinist.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/BTCUSD_2024-12-19_06-14-40.png?resize=980%2C616)  
*BTC holding a bullish structure | Source: [BTCUSDT chart on TradingView](https://208.87.241.209/chart/H7cS2cAO/?symbol=BITSTAMP%3ABTCUSD&amp;__cpo=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cudHJhZGluZ3ZpZXcuY29t)*

Giant Bitcoin Whale Moves 72,000 BTC, 8,000 Coins Aged 5-7 Years. This unprecedented move by a long-term holder signals potential market shifts.

72,000 BTC Transferred by Bitcoin Whale: Is It a Market Top or Altseason Ahead?

### **Spot Bitcoin ETFs Experience Unprecedented Withdrawals**

The U.S.-listed **spot bitcoin (BTC)** exchange-traded funds (ETFs) faced a staggering **record outflow of $671.9 million** on Thursday, marking the largest single-day withdrawal since their inception on January 11. This decline comes as bitcoin's price plunged below **$100,000**, extending its **post-Fed losses**.

### **CME Futures Premium Indicates Weak Demand**

The **CME futures premium** has also diminished, dropping into single digits, which signals a decrease in short-term demand. Investors ended a **15-day streak of inflows**, with Fidelity's FBTC and Grayscale's GBTC leading the outflows, losing **$208.5 million** and **$188.6 million**, respectively. Other funds also experienced significant withdrawals, with BlackRock's IBIT reporting a zero figure for the first time in weeks.

Bitcoin's price fell to **$96,000**, down nearly **10%** from its recent high of **$108,268** earlier this week. This bearish sentiment is reflected in the derivatives market, where the **annualized premium** in CME's regulated one-month bitcoin futures fell to **9.83%**, the lowest in over a month.

### **Impact on Ether ETFs**

Additionally, **Ether ETFs** witnessed a net outflow of **$60.5 million**, marking the first decline since November 21. Ether has suffered a **20% drop** since exceeding **$4,100** before the Fed's recent decision.

### **Market Implications**

The decline in the futures premium suggests that cash-and-carry arbitrage strategies involving long positions in ETFs and short positions in CME futures are yielding lower returns, indicating that **ETFs may continue to face weak demand** in the near term.

The exchange-traded funds lost a record $671.9 million as bitcoin extended post-Fed losses below $100,000. 

Ethereum's Price Struggles: Will It Break Free from Downtrend Resistance?

Summary:

Ethereum Technical Analysis

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Could Bitcoin's Stability Spark a New Crypto Boom? MicroStrategy and Riot Platforms Lead the Charge!

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Why Bitcoin's Santa Rally is a No-Show This Year: Insights and Analysis

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Why Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Are Selling: Insights on the Market Shift

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Why Bitcoin's Santa Rally is a No-Show This Year: Insights and Analysis

El Salvador's Chivo Wallet Faces Closure as Government Shifts Bitcoin Strategy

Why Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Are Selling: Insights on the Market Shift

72,000 BTC Transferred by Bitcoin Whale: Is It a Market Top or Altseason Ahead?

Massive Outflows from U.S. Bitcoin ETFs: What It Means for the Market