Bitcoin's Price Ceiling Analysis
The CryptoQuant founder, Ki Young Ju, has unveiled a compelling model suggesting that Bitcoin's maximum price could currently be around $135,000.
Understanding the Realized Cap Model
This model is based on the Realized Cap, which is an on-chain valuation method that assumes the 'real' value of any Bitcoin in circulation is the price at which it was last transacted. This reflects the current cost basis of each coin in circulation.
The Realized Cap essentially measures the total capital invested in Bitcoin by all holders, and from this, we derive a new metric called the Realized Price. The Realized Price is further analyzed using two key multipliers: 3.9x and 0.75x. The chart below illustrates the historical trends of these multipliers:
In this analysis, the 3.9x multiplier is identified as Bitcoin's 'ceiling price', while the 0.75x multiplier represents its 'floor price'. Historical data suggests that Bitcoin typically peaks at or just above the 3.9x multiplier and bottoms at or slightly below the 0.75x multiplier.
Currently, Bitcoin's ceiling price is estimated at around $135,741, and its floor price is $26,104. With Bitcoin trading significantly above the floor, there’s still considerable room for growth, based on historical patterns.
However, it’s important to note that this ceiling price is not guaranteed to remain static as new capital inflows could influence it. For now, Bitcoin’s upper limit appears to be just under $136,000.
Current Bitcoin Price
As of now, Bitcoin's rally has paused, with its price hovering around $90,000.
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