Summary:
72% odds that Bitcoin will reach $95,000 by November.
Current price of Bitcoin is around $91,000.
60% chance Bitcoin stays above $90,000 on November 22.
Tom Lee predicts Bitcoin could hit $150,000 by the end of the year.
Bitcoin has soared 32% in November and doubled this year.
The Rise of Prediction Markets
Prediction markets have gained traction, especially during the recent presidential election, showcasing their ability to predict outcomes more accurately than traditional opinion polls. With cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin gaining momentum post-election, many are turning to these markets to forecast Bitcoin's future price.
Bitcoin's Current Standing
As of now, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $91,000. On Polymarket, the odds for Bitcoin reaching $95,000 by November stand at 72%. The next highest predictions include $105,000 at 23% and $110,000 at 14%. Additionally, a separate contract shows a 60% chance for Bitcoin to stay above $90,000 on November 22, while the likelihood of hitting $100,000 is only 42%.
Future Predictions
On the Kalshi prediction market, a contract that forecasts Bitcoin's price before 2026 suggests a 52% chance of it reaching $125,000 or more, with a 44% probability for $150,000 and above.
Analyst Insights
For those who prefer traditional analyses, Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, has made bold predictions. He previously suggested Bitcoin could hit $150,000 by year-end. Although this seems less probable now, he maintains that a six-figure price is achievable before the end of the year, especially with continued gains expected in 2025 and 2026.
Lee's optimism is bolstered by Bitcoin's impressive 32% rise in November alone and its doubling in price this year. To reach $100,000, Bitcoin would need to increase by another 10%.
Market Sentiment
Despite a recent stall in the post-election rally, key components of the “Trump trade” remain strong, including stocks like Tesla and Treasury yields. Quinn Thompson, founder of Lekker Capital, also expressed optimism about Bitcoin hitting the $100,000 mark soon, stating it could happen by the end of the month.
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