Bitcoin Soars Past $100k Amid SEC Drama: What It Means for XRP and the Crypto Market

SEC vs. Ripple: Why the Crenshaw Vote Matters

President-elect Trump has nominated Paul Atkins, a former SEC Commissioner, as the next SEC Chair. The crypto community perceives Atkins as crypto-friendly, suggesting he may support Trump's pro-crypto agenda. However, Atkins will replace SEC Chair Gary Gensler on January 20, right before the SEC must file its appeal-related opening brief in the Ripple case.

With Democrat SEC Commissioner Jaime Lizarraga resigning on January 17, if Crenshaw is renominated, she would be the only Democrat with voting powers on crypto-related matters, potentially influencing the SEC's direction in the Ripple case. Internal SEC rules require a vote from the agency, not just the Chair, to decide on the appeal's continuation or withdrawal. Thus, if Gensler files before leaving, Atkins cannot unilaterally withdraw the appeal.

The prospect of a Republican-dominated SEC may lead to a vote to withdraw the appeal, although uncertainty regarding Crenshaw's renomination could impact XRP demand.

XRP Price Volatility and Regulatory Impact

On December 11, XRP rose by 0.91%, following a 7.00% increase the previous day, closing at $2.3946. Notably, XRP underperformed compared to the broader crypto market, which surged by 4.85%, pushing the total market cap to $3.520 trillion. While optimism exists about the SEC withdrawing its Ripple appeal, uncertainty regarding Crenshaw's renomination has limited recent gains.

XRP's near-term price trends will likely depend on the SEC's decision regarding the appeal. If the SEC pursues the appeal, XRP may face selling pressure, potentially dragging it towards $1. Conversely, a withdrawal could push XRP past its January 2018 all-time high of $3.5505.

The wider crypto market, including Coinbase and Binance, would benefit from an appeal. A withdrawal could set the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling as a vital legal precedent, undermining the SEC's cases against crypto exchanges. A ruling in July 2023 determined that XRP sales on exchanges do not violate US securities laws.

BTC-Spot ETF Market Extends Inflow Streak Driving BTC to $100k

Bitcoin (BTC) remained a cornerstone of the crypto market, hitting $100,901 on December 11 after a 4.11% rally. The US BTC-spot ETF market extended its net inflow streak to nine days on December 10, enhancing BTC demand. Noteworthy inflows included:

• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC): $121.9 million
• ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB): $52.7 million
• Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC): $20.1 million

Excluding iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) flow data, the US BTC-spot ETF market reported $223.1 million in net inflows on December 11. Speculation about the Trump administration including BTC as a US strategic reserve asset is influencing ETF flow trends. With the US government holding a 198,109 BTC stockpile, this could mitigate oversupply risks.

Bitcoin Price Outlook

On December 11, BTC closed at $100,901, marking its second time holding above the $100k mark. Future BTC price trends will depend on US BTC-spot ETF market flows, expectations for a December Fed rate cut, and US government BTC movements. The recent US inflation data has bolstered expectations for a rate cut, increasing BTC demand. Investors should monitor US government crypto transfers, as significant transfers could trigger oversupply risks, potentially dragging BTC below $95,000.