Summary:
Bitcoin failed to break through key resistance despite positive US inflation news.
The sell-off that started in early June may continue.
MACD indicator shows signs of a bullish shift in momentum.
Supply overhang from Germany's Saxony state is nearly exhausted.
Potential FTX repayments could translate into buying pressure.
Interest rate cut in September could benefit risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Bulls Stumble Again: Is This the End of the Bull Run?
Despite positive US inflation news, Bitcoin failed to break through key resistance on Thursday, continuing its downward trend since early June. While the recent sell-off might continue, there are reasons for optimism.
The Sell-Off Continues
The recent sell-off started in early June, and the latest bull failure on Thursday, despite positive economic news, suggests more weakness may be ahead. A similar trendline rejection on July 1 proved costly, deepening the sell-off.
Reasons for Hope
However, all is not lost for Bitcoin bulls. There are several reasons for optimism:
- MACD Indicator: The daily chart MACD histogram is showing signs of a bullish shift in momentum. This indicator is used to gauge trend strength and changes.
- Supply Overhang: The recent supply overhang from Germany's Saxony state, which caused the price drop earlier this month, is nearly exhausted.
- FTX Repayments: The potential of $16.3 billion in FTX repayments over the next months could translate into buying pressure.
- Interest Rate Cut: The potential for an interest rate cut in September could benefit risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Different Selling Profiles
The potential selling by Mt. Gox's creditors, who are scheduled to receive 140,000 BTC, might have a different profile than Saxony's sales. The flow of coins might be directed differently, and the selling might be more gradual.
The Future of Bitcoin
The recent Bitcoin sell-off highlights the volatility of the crypto market. However, the potential for long-term growth remains. The positive stance toward crypto on both sides of the aisle and the potential for an interest rate cut in September could ultimately push Bitcoin higher. The future of Bitcoin remains uncertain, but the bulls are not giving up just yet.
Comments