Summary:
Bitcoin's correlation to macro factors remains strong, but it can also move independently due to its unique characteristics.
The current market retracement is consistent with past cycles following Bitcoin halvings, with drops of up to 30% being common.
Historical data suggests that Bitcoin has never returned to pre-halving prices after completing the transition, hinting at a potential upside.
Gazmararian predicts a Bitcoin top in late 2025, but warns that a price decline exceeding 50% could challenge this outlook.
While long-term holders are largely in profit, short-term holders are facing losses, making aggressive declines potentially risky.
Despite Bitcoin's recent price slump, Token Bay Capital founder Lucy Gazmararian believes the Bitcoin bull run is far from over. She argues that the current market retracement is consistent with previous cycles and points to historical data showing significant drops followed by parabolic runs to new highs after Bitcoin halvings. Gazmararian predicts that the market could see a Bitcoin top in late 2025, assuming the current pattern holds. However, she cautions that a drop of over 50% in the next few months could challenge this optimistic outlook. Data from IntoTheBlock reveals that long-term Bitcoin holders are largely in profit, while short-term holders are facing losses, making aggressive declines potentially risky for many investors.
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