Bitcoin has struggled through 2026, failing to maintain the heights of over $126,000 per bitcoin reached last year. The bitcoin price has lost more than 50% since October, but a Federal Reserve surprise flip could be about to change that.

Now, as the chief executive of the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock, issues a 12-month bitcoin price prediction, a closely-watched analyst has said he expects the fleet of bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will likely mean the bitcoin price “mirrors” gold’s history of “triumph and pain.”

![Bitcoin price chart](https://imageio.forbes.com/specials-images/imageserve/65d9e250fa2ec476574d12e6/bitcoin--bitcoin-price--crypto--gold--BlackRock--bitcoin-price-prediction--image/0x0.jpg?width=960)

**Gold ETFs’ 22-year history may offer the closest roadmap yet for bitcoin ETF investors**, according to Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst Eric Balchunas. The gold price has rocketed to give gold a market capitalization of almost $28 trillion since the arrival of gold ETFs in 2004.

“Both are wrappers around non-yielding stores of value that generate no cash flow, leaving investor sentiment—not earnings, coupons or government support, as with stocks and bonds—to drive performance,” Balchunas wrote.

Balchunas pointed to gold seeing “both extremes” over the last two decades, “briefly becoming the world's largest ETF before spending eight years in doldrums trying to get back to that place.”

Bitcoin ETFs “may be following the same script: **spectacular gains, painful drawdowns and recoveries** that may test investors’ patience,” Balchunas said, adding that, “each cycle for gold ETFs has increased the high water mark.”

The spot bitcoin ETF debut, coming in early 2024 after more than 10 years of campaigning by crypto investors, saw a handful of bitcoin funds become some of the fastest growing of all-time as Wall Street rushed to gain exposure to bitcoin.

Earlier this month, analysts with the Bitfinex exchange warned a “shock” ETF outflow could be about to torpedo the bitcoin price recovery, which has climbed by almost 10% since plunging to lows of under $57,000 in early July.

BlackRock’s IBIT, the largest bitcoin fund by net assets that dominates the bitcoin ETF field, has sold almost 100,000 bitcoin in recent months to meet redemption requests, now holding just over 733,000 bitcoin worth just under $50 billion on behalf of investors.

“I feel like there’s a spiritual parallel between gold and IBIT,” Balchunas said. “Gold got so popular so quickly that for one day in 2011 it was bigger than SPY [the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust], the biggest ETF in world. Then it went out of favor for years. IBIT, similarly reached $100 billion in assets for one day … and that ended up being the October [2025] top. Both have almost new supply and so when the demand comes it can cause price explosions. Problem is that demand can be fickle and come in waves vs steady.”

For now, bitcoin and crypto traders are confident that demand for bitcoin exposure via ETFs is showing resilience, helping to dampen the bitcoin price decline in recent months.

“Institutional demand remains one of bitcoin’s key pillars,” Simon-Peter Massabni, head of business development at XS.com, said in emailed comments. “Spot bitcoin ETFs continue to attract steady investment inflows, while an increasing number of companies are incorporating digital assets into their portfolio diversification strategies. This institutional interest has helped ease the selling pressure observed during the latest market pullbacks.”

Bitcoin could be headed for a $27.9 trillion game-changer...

Bitcoin Could Skyrocket Like Gold: Analyst Predicts 'Spectacular' Price Explosions

Traders should keep a close eye on a potential **bitcoin 'volmageddon'** — a volatility surge often accompanied by price declines. This warning comes from the behavior of bitcoin's **30-day implied volatility index (BVIV)**, the crypto equivalent of Wall Street's VIX.

Currently, the BVIV is hovering between **34% and 38%**, a range that historically has preceded a **volatility boom and a price slide**. For example, when the index hit this zone in late May, bitcoin dropped from **$74,000 to under $60,000** in less than a week. Similar patterns occurred before the early February crash and after the October record highs.

While past patterns don't guarantee future performance, volatility metrics are **mean-reverting**. The index is trading below both its **30-day and 200-day simple moving averages**, suggesting volatility is relatively "cheap" and likely to rise, bringing another round of turbulence.

Bitcoin currently trades just above **$64,000**, maintaining a range-bound price action. Spot ETF inflows have been noted, but they are tiny compared to the billions withdrawn during the preceding eight-week outflow streak.

Global volatility gauges offer mixed signals: South Korea's KOSPI VIX is above **70%** (highest since the 1990s), while Wall Street's VIX jumped to **18%**. However, these levels have persisted for months, indicating stocks are not panicked. The **MOVE index** (U.S. Treasury volatility) remains steady around **70%**, offering a constructive cue for risk assets.

![BVIV vs Bitcoin Price](https://cdn.sanity.io/images/s3y3vcno/production/fde01a26334153e5b4811a93ac1eccb23747bfab-2854x1488.png?auto=format)
*Bitcoin volatility may be set to surge, price poised to slide if history is a guide. (TradingView)*

**Today's Signal:** The chart shows bitcoin's price swings (blue line) and BVIV in candlestick format. BVIV has established a **support range in the 34%–38% area**, and each drop into this zone has tended to precede fresh turbulence and price weakness. Currently, BVIV is around **38%**, near the upper edge of that range.

Bitcoin 'Volmageddon' Warning: Key Indicator Flashes Red for BTC Price

Bitcoin mining is increasingly concentrated in the hands of a few major players. As of June 23, 2026, **four mining pools** – Foundry Digital, AntPool, ViaBTC, and F2Pool – controlled **over 70% of the network's hashrate**, according to data from miningpoolstats.stream. This consolidation is creating a **two-tier market** that favors institutional clients, leaving independent and mid-size miners at a disadvantage.

## The Dominant Four

The estimated hashrate split is stark:
- **Foundry Digital**: 31%
- **AntPool**: 18%
- **ViaBTC**: 13%
- **F2Pool**: 10%

Foundry, backed by Digital Currency Group, is US-based and primarily serves large-scale institutional operators with strict KYC requirements. This focus on big players means smaller miners often receive less responsive support and less predictable payouts.

## A Two-Tier Market

The concentration has led to a **two-tier market** where the largest pools optimize for institutional miners. Independent and mid-size miners are quietly reconsidering their pool choices as they feel like edge cases rather than core customers.

## Regulatory Scrutiny and Alternatives
**ViaBTC** has faced increased regulatory scrutiny in 2026, particularly affecting miners in Russia and CIS countries. Issues include account restrictions, sudden KYC demands, and temporary fund freezes. This has prompted some miners to seek alternatives.

**EMCD** is emerging as a viable option, claiming over 30 EH/s of hashrate with fees starting at **1.5% under FPPS**, compared to the ~4% charged by many comparable pools. EMCD was founded in 2017 and launched its first pool in February 2018.

## Centralization Metrics
According to D-Central's H1 2026 snapshot, Bitcoin mining pools had a **Nakamoto coefficient of 3** – meaning only three pools are needed to exceed half of all blocks mined. Foundry USA alone accounted for roughly 27% of blocks.

Recent data from Simple Mining (July 16, 2026) shows:
- Foundry USA: 27.0%
- F2Pool: 17.2%
- AntPool: 17.2%
- ViaBTC: 9.5%
- SpiderPool: 5.5%

This trend raises concerns about **centralization** and the potential for collusion or censorship within the Bitcoin network. As smaller miners seek fairer alternatives, the landscape may shift in the coming months.

Bitcoin mining grows more concentrated as four pools control 70%+ of hashrate, prompting miners to weigh alternatives in 2026.

4 Mining Pools Control 70% of Bitcoin's Hashrate – Is Decentralization at Risk?

Imagine turning $500 into nearly $4,600 in five years. That's the potential upside for **XRP (CRYPTO: XRP)** if key catalysts align, according to our analysis. Currently trading at **$1.09**, XRP is down 68% over the past year, presenting both risk and opportunity.

## What $500 Buys You Today

At $1.09, $500 buys about **459 XRP**. Unlike staking coins, XRP doesn't earn yield—your profit solely depends on price appreciation. With 62.5 billion XRP in circulation (out of 100 billion max), supply inflation dilutes value, making demand crucial.

## XRP Price Predictions Through 2031

Our forecast assumes a full crypto cycle: bottom, recovery, peak, and correction. Key driver: the **CLARITY Act**, which could cement XRP's commodity status. If passed, institutional inflows could surge.

| Year | Price Target | $500 Becomes |
|------|--------------|-------------|
| Today | $1.09 | $500 |
| End 2026 | $1.40 | $640 |
| End 2027 | $3.00 | $1,375 |
| End 2028 | $4.50 | $2,065 |
| End 2029 | $6.00 | $2,755 |
| 2030 Peak | $10.00 | $4,590 |
| Mid-2031 | $6.50 | $2,985 |

The **2030 cycle peak** at $10 is the high point, followed by a correction to $6.50 by mid-2031.

## What Could Limit XRP's Gains?

- **CLARITY Act failure**: Without passage, institutional buyers stay sidelined, capping price near $4 peak and $2.50 by 2031.
- **Interest rates**: High rates divert capital from crypto, hitting altcoins like XRP hardest.
- **Weak cycle**: The halving pattern is based on only two prior cycles, not a guarantee.

## Upside Scenario: Bank Adoption

If banks start settling payments in XRP, demand could push the peak to **$13-$15**, turning $500 into over $5,000 by 2031.

## Bottom Line

$500 in XRP could be worth **~$3,000 by mid-2031**, with a peak near $4,590 in 2030—but only if the CLARITY Act passes, institutions buy, and the cycle plays out. It's a high-risk, high-reward bet.

How much will $500 in XRP be worth in 5 years? Our prediction has it near $4,590 at XRP's 2030 peak, before easing to about $3,000 by 2031.

Is Your $500 XRP Investment Poised to Become $4,590 by 2030? Our Bold Prediction

Defeating Donald Trump’s authoritarian movement requires taking on the largest industry financing it: **cryptocurrency**. We know most people’s eyes glaze over at the mere mention of the word “crypto.” The industry’s lobbyists depend on that; they win when the public is kept in the dark. But this is the biggest money-and-power story in American politics right now, and it’s important we all pay attention.

We come at this from different directions. Ben is an actor, author, and filmmaker who spent years investigating crypto fraud. Ezra co-founded Indivisible, a grassroots pro-democracy movement with thousands of local groups across the country. From different vantage points, we’ve reached the same conclusion: **Crypto is no longer just a risky investment. It’s a dangerous political machine fueled by corruption.**

The crypto industry is reshaping American politics from the shadows, spending nearly **$200 million** already to influence the 2026 elections. There is an all-too-familiar playbook for buying influence in Washington: Interest groups funnel millions into primaries through super PACs, using outside spending and misleading attacks to defeat candidates and install their preferred policymakers. Crypto is deploying that playbook now, because it has billions of dollars riding on the regulatory decisions the federal government makes.

The political investments have already paid dividends. Last year, Congress passed the **GENIUS Act**, an industry-friendly crypto bill that sailed through the House and Senate. Advocates warned that Trump would use the bill to self-enrich, but Republicans rejected any ethics provisions that would have tied his hands. In the end, near-unanimous Republican support and dozens of Democratic votes gave the crypto industry and Trump what they wanted.

Trump’s payday was historic. His own financial disclosure shows he earned more than **$1.4 billion** from crypto ventures last year. His ties represent a new level of corruption: The president is openly profiting from an industry spending heavily to influence elections and secure favorable government treatment.

But Trump isn’t satisfied. Congress handed him a printing press, and now he’s pushing for a bigger one. At his and the industry’s urging, Congress is considering the **CLARITY Act**, an even more consequential proposal. The bill would shift much of crypto oversight to a weaker regulatory body, a move critics warn would soften investor protections, create regulatory loopholes, and further open the door to corruption.

While Washington cashes in, ordinary Americans bear the risks. Crypto’s boom-and-bust cycles have left countless consumers exposed to fraud, scams, and market collapses while insiders emerge wealthier. The fight over crypto is no longer a niche financial or technology policy debate. It is about **consumer protection, corruption, and whether our democracy allows concentrated wealth to purchase both elections and the policies that follow**. It’s about whether anything constrains Trump’s insatiable appetite for money and power.

If Democrats are serious about confronting Trump’s corruption, they must challenge the financial interests sustaining it. Voters are looking for fighters, not folders — and you cannot fight corruption while cashing its checks. That means rejecting legislation like the CLARITY Act while the industry behind it spends hundreds of millions to influence lawmakers in an election year. It means rejecting crypto campaign contributions and independent expenditures. A party committed to fighting for democracy cannot be dependent on an industry enriching Trump and his allies.

Standing up to crypto is not only good policy — it is also good politics. Voters want leaders focused on lowering costs, protecting consumers, and holding wealthy special interests accountable. The question before Congress is not simply how crypto should be regulated. It is whether industries should be allowed to spend fortunes shaping elections and then write the rules that govern them. If Democrats want to show voters they are serious about fighting corruption, the answer must be no.

With the CLARITY Act, Washington is cashing in on the crypto industry. Americans will pay the price.

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