Bitcoin has two forks on the calendar for 2026. Developer Paul Sztorc plans a deliberate hard fork called eCash, activating at block height 964,000, expected around August 21. Separately, a contested soft fork proposal called BIP-110 carries the chance of splitting the chain by accident during its August signaling window. Both events raise the same question for anyone holding BTC: why does a chain split hand out a second coin, and why is the exchange rate always 1:1 at the moment it happens.

## Key Takeaways
- A Bitcoin chain split duplicates the UTXO set, giving holders a 1:1 coin on both ledgers.
- Paul Sztorc’s eCash fork activates at Bitcoin block 964,000 around August 21, 2026.
- Replay protection, mining difficulty, and the market, not generosity, decide if a forked coin holds up.

The answer has nothing to do with generosity and everything to do with how Bitcoin actually keeps track of ownership.

## Bitcoin Doesn’t Track Balances, It Tracks Outputs

Bitcoin has no account ledger with names and running totals. Instead, it tracks unspent transaction outputs, known as **UTXOs**. Each UTXO is a discrete chunk of bitcoin locked to a specific key. A wallet balance is just the sum of every UTXO that the private key can unlock. That detail matters because it explains what a fork actually copies.

When a hard fork produces a lasting split, two networks begin enforcing different rules starting from the same shared point in history. Every block before that point, and every UTXO that existed the moment before it, is identical on both chains.

![Chain split visual](https://static.news.bitcoin.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/screenshot-2026-07-11-at-7-24-35-am.png)
*A visual interpretation of a Bitcoin chain split when the two networks do not agree on the same ruleset.*

Nothing needs to be recreated or reissued. Both networks already have the same records, because they were the same chain until the split.

## Why 1:1 Isn’t a Gift, It’s Duplication

Picture a holder with 1 BTC in a single UTXO right before a split. That output exists in the shared history both chains inherit. The bitcoin chain recognizes it. The new forked chain recognizes it too, because it accepted the same blocks up to that point. The private key hasn’t been copied by some network process. It was already the only thing capable of spending that output, and now two separate sets of nodes independently agree on that fact.

![UTXO history visual](https://static.news.bitcoin.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/screenshot-2026-07-11-at-7-23-19-am.png)
*A visual interpretation of how BTC UTXOs can share the same history after a chain split.*

That’s why the ratio is always 1:1 at the snapshot. It isn’t an **airdrop** in the conventional sense, where a project mints new tokens and sends them to a list of addresses. Nobody compiles a list. No new transaction moves anything. The forked network simply calculates the same pre-split UTXO set that already existed, then starts applying its own rules to it going forward.

## One Rule Doesn’t Guarantee Two Equal Futures

The 1:1 relationship only describes the instant of the split. After that, the two chains stop staying in sync. A holder can spend their bitcoin on the original chain while leaving the forked coin untouched, or the reverse. New bitcoin mined after the chain split exists only on the Bitcoin chain. New coins mined on the forked chain exist only there. Supply, price, and transaction history diverge from the split.

Self-custody makes claiming both sides straightforward in principle, since whoever controls the key at the snapshot can typically sign transactions on either chain. Custodial holdings work differently. If bitcoin sits in an exchange wallet, the exchange controls the key at the snapshot, not the individual customer. Whether that customer receives the forked coin depends entirely on the platform’s policy, not on the protocol itself.

## Shared History Creates a Hidden Risk: Replay

Because both chains start with identical signing rules, a transaction built for one chain can sometimes be valid on the other too. Someone doesn’t need a private key to exploit this. They only need to copy an already signed transaction from one network and rebroadcast it on the second. If it goes through, a holder loses the ability to decide independently when and how to move their forked coin.

This is why serious forks in the past have built in **replay protection**, typically by embedding a chain-specific identifier into what gets signed. A transaction that includes that identifier validates on the intended chain and fails on the other, closing the loophole without requiring users to do anything extra. Forks without strong protection leave that decision to the holder, who may need to deliberately create a chain-exclusive transaction before it’s safe to move funds freely on either side.

## Mining Difficulty Is the New Chain’s Next Hurdle

A forked chain also inherits Bitcoin’s mining difficulty, which was calibrated for whatever **hashrate** the network had before the split. That number rarely matches what the new chain actually attracts. If far less hashpower follows the fork, blocks arrive slowly until the next scheduled adjustment catches up, leaving the new network with a temporary window where it produces blocks unevenly and remains easier to disrupt than the chain it came from.

## Hashpower Decides Which Chain a Node Actually Follows

One more detail keeps the two networks from bleeding into each other. Bitcoin nodes select the valid chain carrying the most accumulated **proof of work (PoW)**, but only among chains that follow their own consensus rules. A node enforcing Bitcoin’s original rules won’t accept a forked block just because forked miners produced more cumulative work behind it. Hashrate settles disputes between valid competing blocks on the same ruleset. It has no power to make a node accept a block that violates the rules that node already enforces. That’s part of why a hard fork results in two persistent chains instead of one chain simply winning outright.

None of this changes the basic mechanism at the center of both eCash and BIP-110. A chain split doesn’t create value out of nothing. It duplicates recognition of an existing ownership record across two ledgers that then go their own way, leaving replay protection and mining stability to determine how usable the new asset becomes.

How does a Bitcoin chain split give holders a 1:1 coin? The UTXO mechanics behind blockchain split, explained.

Bitcoin Chain Splits: Why You Get a Free 1:1 Copy of Your BTC

The last crypto bull market, which ended in October 2025, rewarded narratives and stories more than actual economic activity. Meme coins and networks making big promises with little in the way of new or useful features caught buyers' attention. Now, as **Bitcoin** grinds its way through its worst stretch since 2022, there are early signs of a recovery in the market thanks to a handful of projects.

The emerging contenders for leaders in the next bull market are different because they're operating more like businesses than cryptocurrencies of the past. Here's which coins to watch and what to expect if the market continues to perk up.

## Cash Flow Could Become the Name of the Game

Traditionally, crypto majors other than Bitcoin, like **Ethereum**, **Solana**, and **XRP**, have a complicated relationship between their token's value and the extent to which their blockchains are actually used for economically productive activity. Those chains collect fees, but only a small portion reaches token holders directly; the rest flows to validators, stakers, or ecosystem funds. That's part of the reason holding Ethereum for the past five years left holders with losses of 8% despite enormous technical improvements, capital inflows, and network usage.

The coins that will win in the next crypto bull market will likely invert that dynamic, ensuring that holders get compensated for tying up their capital and attracting more investment as a result.

**Hyperliquid** is the most prominent example. Its Assistance Fund captures close to 99% of the trading fees on the chain's decentralized exchange into HYPE token purchases, which are burned and removed from circulation. It has bought back more than $2 billion worth of its token since launch, soaking up 4.7% of its maximum supply at about four to five times the burn rate of Ethereum.

**Lighter** is another decentralized exchange and one of Hyperliquid's competitors, running the same playbook with its supply. All trading fee revenue funnels into LIT token repurchases, and per the June 30 tokenomics update, those coins purchased through buybacks will be permanently burned; 6.3% of supply is already gone.

Another riff on this holder-friendly tokenomics concept is **Bittensor**. It operates as an ecosystem of different subnets offering artificial intelligence (AI) training and related services. Its recent upgrade gave every subnet its own unique token; leading subnets, like Chutes, recycle their platform revenue into buybacks of their subnet tokens, so that holders of the subnet's asset can capture value from demand for the subnet's computing services.

This puts pressure on majors like Ethereum and Solana. They may opt to give holders a stronger claim on the future of on-chain revenue if the new challengers are successful in attracting capital during the next cycle.

## New Challenges Will Occur Amid Some of the Same Old Trends

Perhaps the biggest risk during the next bull market will be **quantum computing**, which could theoretically be used to steal coins once a powerful enough quantum computer is developed. Bitcoin will need to convince investors that it's prepared to adapt to the risk of its encryption becoming compromised. A new proposal called BIP-360, accepted in February 2026, laid out the first potential quantum-resistance plan. If new security measures aren't agreed upon and put into place promptly, it will become a major headwind for the coin's price.

Thus, pretty much every major chain will need to spend more on cryptographic hardening to be investable in the coming cycle. That will be especially important as more capital is onboarded to tokenized real-world assets (RWAs), which will be the main draw pulling in institutions this time around.

Another new theme, **financial privacy**, will likely be a big one in the next bull market. Established privacy coins like **Zcash** and **Monero** have questionable track records, so they will likely need to fend off some competition from newcomers even if their prices rise.

Old themes will be in play even as new ones become more important. An unpredictable handful of meme coins will run again, as they always do. More serious segments that fell short of their 2021 valuations during the most recent bull market, notably decentralized physical infrastructure (DePIN) and social finance, are largely hollowed out and probably won't recover.

But no matter what happens, there's a lot to be optimistic about for the next crypto bull market whenever it may occur.

There's a lot to be excited about once a new bull market starts in crypto.

Next Crypto Bull Market: Why Cash Flow Will Be King and These Coins Could Lead

Traders and crypto analysts have adjusted **XRP's target price** after **Ripple's vision** was validated with the launch of a **SWIFT pilot** for tokenised cross-border payments.

## Market Context

XRP dipped slightly to **$1.10** amid a broadly negative market as capital rotates defensively out of altcoins and into Bitcoin. **Bitcoin dominance** rose to **58.43%** as the total crypto market cap dipped 0.29%. This signals that capital is rotating from riskier altcoins into Bitcoin, a typical defensive move in a "Fear" sentiment environment. Other major alts, like **Avalanche (AVAX)**, also fell by over 4%, confirming the broader pressure.

## SWIFT's Tokenized Payment Pilot

Sell-side pressure persisted amid news that **SWIFT tapped more than 30 banks** connected to Ripple's ecosystem to enhance cross-border payments. SWIFT has introduced its own **blockchain-based shared ledger** after nine months of development. The pilot project is moving into operational use with **17 major banks** set to pioneer tokenised cross-border payments. This pilot for **24/7 tokenised cross-border payments** is seen as a direct validation of the infrastructure model Ripple has championed for years.

While SWIFT's system coordinates tokenised deposits, **Ripple's On-Demand Liquidity** solution uses XRP as a bridge asset for instant settlement. This is **bullish for XRP** because it signals a broad shift in the financial industry toward the exact type of always-on, programmable settlement networks Ripple built. SWIFT's move reduces scepticism and could accelerate **institutional adoption** of blockchain-based rails, where Ripple is an established player.

SWIFT has also announced its next steps: a **platform for programmable money and agentic commerce**, with payments made automatically when conditions are met without manual authorisation.

## Ripple's Ecosystem Expansion

A few months ago, **Ripple Treasury joined SWIFT**, enabling direct global bank access and unified control of fiat and crypto. It also partnered with **Kyobo Life Insurance** for real-time tokenised government bond settlement. Now, more than 30 banks connected to the Ripple ecosystem are listed in SWIFT's payments framework. The list includes **HSBC, Deutsche Bank, Santander, Standard Chartered, and JPMorgan**.

This is not a migration from SWIFT to XRP. The truth is, **XRP may be a liquidity-providing platform** for SWIFT's growing digital transformation. Banks require instant liquidity to fulfil tokenised cross-border transactions. Ripple's network provides them with access to such liquidity in real time without pre-funding foreign accounts in each destination currency.

## Technical Analysis

Analysts said XRP's drop is less about its own fundamentals and more about a market-wide shift toward perceived safety and liquidity. A sustained rise in Bitcoin dominance above 59% would likely extend pressure on XRP and other alts. The move occurred on **below-average volume** (down 6.15%), suggesting a lack of strong conviction rather than a panic sell-off. Technically, **XRP's RSI at 39.5** is nearing oversold territory, indicating weak momentum but not extreme capitulation.

The immediate key level is **$1.09**, which aligns with the recent swing low and the current price. Holding here could lead to a consolidation range between $1.09 and the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $1.10. The primary risk is a breakdown if Bitcoin strengthens further, which could push XRP toward the next support zone around **$1.05–$1.07**. The trend is bearish in the short term, but oversold conditions could slow the descent. A decisive daily close below $1.09 would confirm further downside. XRP is caught in a defensive market rotation, with its fate tied to Bitcoin's strength and broader altcoin sentiment.

Traders and crypto analysts have adjusted XRP's target price (TP) after Ripple’s vision....

SWIFT's Tokenized Payment Pilot Validates Ripple's Vision: XRP Price Outlook

Robinhood Chain is a blockchain network developed by Robinhood, the financial services company behind the stock and crypto trading platform. Launched in mainnet on July 1, 2026, it brings together **tokenized assets**, **decentralized finance (DeFi)**, and **smart contracts** to power crypto applications.

## What is Robinhood Chain?
Robinhood Chain is an **Ethereum layer-2 network** built using **Arbitrum technology**. It gives developers a network for building applications involving financial assets, including **tokenized stocks**, ETFs, and other real-world assets. As a layer-2 network, it processes transactions separately before settling on Ethereum, reducing fees and increasing throughput.

Robinhood Chain uses **ETH** as its native gas token and is compatible with the **Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM)**, allowing developers to use existing Ethereum tools. It leverages the **Arbitrum Dedicated Blockchains framework** for customization.

## How are transactions processed?
Transactions are processed on a **first-come, first-served basis** via a sequencer. They move through stages: sequencer receives and processes, batches are posted to Ethereum, and final settlement occurs.

## What are Robinhood Stock Tokens?
**Stock Tokens** are blockchain-based assets providing exposure to real-world assets like stocks and ETFs. They can interact with DeFi applications but **do not confer legal ownership** or shareholder voting rights. They are **not available to U.S. users**.

## Applications on Robinhood Chain
The network supports **decentralized exchanges** like Uniswap, **lending protocols** like Morpho, and **oracle services** like Chainlink. Infrastructure partners include Alchemy, BitGo, and Paxos.

## Post-Launch Activity
In its first week, Robinhood Chain recorded **over 17 million transactions**, nearly **350,000 addresses**, and **$1 billion in DEX volume**. The **meme coin Cash Cat** surged, driving initial hype.

Robinhood Chain is an Ethereum layer-2 network built with Arbitrum technology for tokenized assets, crypto apps, and on-chain financial products.

Robinhood Chain: The Ethereum Layer-2 Network Bringing Tokenized Stocks to DeFi

## The Halving Cycle Reality Check

Bitcoin's historic four-year halving cycles have consistently produced new all-time highs, but each successive cycle has delivered **diminishing returns**. Analysts predicting a rally to $300,000 or more by 2029 may be overlooking key data that suggests the era of parabolic moonshots is ending.

### Declining Peak-to-Peak Multiples

The track record of cycle highs tells a clear story:
- **2013**: $266
- **2017**: ~$20,000 (75x from previous high)
- **2021**: ~$69,000 (3.5x from 2017)
- **2025**: $126,000 (just **1.8x** from 2021)

Each bull market peak has delivered **smaller multiples** than the last. To reach $300,000, the next cycle would need over 2x from the 2025 high—a significant acceleration that contradicts the trend.

### Why Diminishing Returns?

As Bitcoin grows and matures, it requires **significantly more capital** to push it higher. The market is becoming **larger, more liquid, and less volatile** due to:
- Institutional participation
- Spot ETFs
- Futures, options, and structured products
- Advanced risk management tools

This institutionalization is making Bitcoin behave more like a traditional asset, with **measured gains** rather than explosive rallies.

### Counterarguments

Some bulls point to potential **Fed stimulus** or **U.S. Treasury Bitcoin purchases** as catalysts. However, even the massive fiscal and monetary stimulus after the 2020 COVID crash could only lift BTC to ~$69,000 in 2021 (3.5x from 2017), a slowdown from the previous cycle. The 2025 high, driven by ETF flows and unprecedented institutional adoption, managed only 1.8x.

### The Bottom Line

Bitcoin is **maturing, not breaking**. The days of peak-to-peak moonshots may be gone for good. Investors chasing the next parabolic supercycle might want to **recalibrate expectations**.

Analysts predict a rally to $300,000 or more by 2029. But key data suggests the era of moonshots may be over.

Why Bitcoin's Moonshot Days May Be Over: Data Challenges $300K-$500K Predictions

XRP is currently trading at **$1.11**, maintaining its level despite broad market selling pressure. With a 24-hour trading volume of $908 million, XRP is down just 0.34% as Ripple aggressively expands through high-profile partnerships and regulatory wins.

## Regulatory Milestone in Europe

Ripple received full authorization as a **Crypto Asset Service Provider (CASP)** from Luxembourg's financial regulator, the CSSF. This license enables Ripple to offer regulated digital payment services across the entire **European Economic Area (EEA)**. This removes a significant compliance barrier and strengthens XRP's utility as a bridge asset for institutional cross-border payments.

## Social Impact and Brand Exposure

Ripple announced a partnership with a nonprofit organization focused on helping unemployed U.S. military veterans secure jobs, aiming to place **200,000 people by 2030**. Ripple will match public donations up to $10,000, showcasing its commitment to social impact.

In a groundbreaking move, Ripple partnered with the **University of Kansas athletics program**, placing the XRP logo on the Kansas Jayhawks' jerseys. This is the first time a cryptocurrency logo has appeared on a major U.S. college athletics uniform. CEO Brad Garlinghouse, a Kansas alum, highlighted the personal significance. Analysts see this as a **bullish brand-awareness play**, exposing XRP to millions of mainstream sports fans and fostering broader acceptance.

## Strategic Positioning

These developments align with Ripple's broader strategy: securing a MiCA-aligned license in Europe, ongoing net inflows into emerging XRP ETFs, and using sports sponsorship to reach retail audiences. XRP is positioning itself as a **regulated, institution-facing asset** while building mainstream brand recognition.

The live XRP price today is $1.11, a level the token has held onto over the last 24 hours amid broad-based selling pressure in the cryptocurr

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